We will know in three months.

At a dinner meeting in Argentina, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump agreed a period of 90 days in which to sort out differences in trade. China has agreed to regulate the manufacture of fentanyl which is the major cause of drug addiction in the US. Nearly 60% of deaths due to opioid overdose in the US in 2017 was caused by fentanyl or its analogue, carfentanil. The US can force Mexico to extradite its drug lords, like Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman, but it is helpless against China where the government protects those manufacturing fentanyl. China has agreed to increase farm imports from the US substantially, although no on knows what 'substantially' means. In retaliation for US tariffs on Chinese goods China had imposed tariffs on US agricultural products in an effort to target Trump supporters. Trump interpreted that as an attempt to influence US midterm elections on 6 November 2018, in which the Democrats won back the House but the Republicans increased their majority in the Senate. "The behaviour of Chinese officials at last weekend's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Papua new Guinea, reportedly barging into the foreign minister's office to try to cut mildly critical language on trade from the final communique, seemed intended to signal that China won't budge an inch on US demands," wrote A Browne. "The key is China's quest to be respected as a great nation," so "it pains them to see their country branded a recalcitrant in the eyes of the world". This gives the rest of the world "every incentive to turn up the heat". The problem for China is that its population is aging, with the number of people over the age of 65 years expected to rise to 24% from 8% by 2050, wrote PR Orszag. Fertility rate has fallen to 1.5. China has relaxed limits on the number of children allowed but people do not want children. "Most urban youth are only children and that feels normal," said J Kaufman. Politicians are normally elected for short periods. Trump is to face re-election in 2020 but Xi Jinping has made himself president for life which means that he will be around when problems multiply. Since grabbing power Xi imposed the Communist Party controls over private enterprise, wrote R McGregor, but has learnt that "The Communist Party sinks or swims with the economy, which itself depends on a thriving private sector." Profit growth at Chinese firms have fallen and debt has fallen as well, showing a squeeze on liquidity. So, will China really modify its behavior in the next 90 days? Unlikely. The leadership cannot allow growth to slow down sharply, creating unrest, and believes that it can fool the US with cosmetic changes, as it has been doing all these years. Will Trump have the nerve to increase tariffs if China reneges? We have to wait 3 months.