Friday, October 26, 2018

You never know when it will work.

"After decades of 'constructive engagement' -- an approach that has facilitated China's rise, even as the country has violated international rules and norms -- the US is now seeking active and concrete counter-measures," wrote Prof B Chellaney. "Even as China defied world trade rules and flexed its military muscles, the US held onto the naive hope that, as China became increasingly prosperous, it would naturally pursue economic and political liberalization." "In fact, China's dictatorship has become even more entrenched in recent years, as the Communist Party of China has used digital surveillance state." The US has been quick to impose sanctions on Myanmar after the exodus of Rohingyas from the country. The UN has called it 'genocide' and 'ethnic cleansing' and Aung San Suu Kyi has been vilified by the sanctimonious western media for not opposing the military, despite terrorist killings by the Rohingyas. Yet there is a deafening silence on the internment of hundreds of thousands of Uighur Muslims in specially constructed large prison camps in Xinjiang province. China is used to getting away with its economic crimes and military aggression. But, the arrival of Trump has suddenly given it a reality check. "Initially, Xi's government figured the president was bluffing." But Vice President Mike Pence "accused Beijing of trying to 'malign' Trump's credibility, of 'reckless harassment' and of working to engineer 'a different American president'. On both military and economic issues, Pence declared: 'We will not be intimidated; we will not stand down'." Six months back China was planning to lead the world in Artificial Intelligence and robotics by spending trillions of dollars on 'Made in China 2025' but now "China's currency is down 6.4 percent this year. Shanghai stocks are down 22.3 percent this year..." Which has prompted the government to revert to its usual policy of stimulating the economy by asking local governments to spend $195 billion on infrastructure projects. China has embarked on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) "to link the economies of 80 countries, covering two-thirds of the world's population, through improved trade and transportation links", wrote YY Ang. "The hallmark of such communist-style mass campaigns is that everyone pitches in with frenzied enthusiasm and little coordination" which often leads to "low-quality and mismatched projects, duplication, and conflicts of interest and corruption". In a first, Sierra Leone is the first African country to cancel a BRI project to build an airport outside its capital Freetown. China maybe "in strong position to withstand US pressure to change its ways" but it is also a pressure cooker nation where dissent is severely suppressed, with violence if necessary A crisis, when it comes, will be from the inside and possibly violent. We really hope so.

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