Slow and steady better than falling down.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just released its World Economic Outlook and "The good news is that it has lowered the forecast for global economic growth from 3.9% to 3.7% this year and the next." wrote VA Nageswaran. "Why is it good news? Unsustainable economic growth in the years leading to 2008 was one of the causes of the crisis. It was sustained by by fickle and debt-based capital flows into the developing world." And they are suffering till today. Risks are rising as "the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) of the IMF highlighted risks in global financial system. Downside risks were also reflected in stock markets around the world last week with a spike in volatility." Years of loose monetary policy by central banks has resulted in high asset prices. "The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for S&P 500 is in excess of 31 compared to the historical average of about 17." Non-financial sector debt has gone up to 250% of GDP, tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will see an outflow of funds from emerging markets, there is not enough policy space to support growth in case there is a downturn and trade tensions are rising. Donald Trump is worried that growth in the US will stall if the Fed keeps raising rates. "My biggest threat is the Fed, because the Fed is raising rates too fast," he said. Some so-called experts predict that a recession will hit the US in the next two years and will be worse than the Great Depression. Companies in Britain have accumulated a total debt of 406 billion pounds to pay for "bumper dividend payouts" and for takeover deals but have not made any preparation to survive a downturn. "Today markets are even larger, 360% of global GDP, a record high. And financial authorities -- trained to focus more on how markets respond to economic risks than on the risks market pose to the economy -- have been inadvertently fueling this new threat," wrote R Sharma. Authorities managed to contain the crisis of 2008, "But with $290 trillion now sloshing around in global markets, new risks are bound to emerge -- in places regulators aren't watching as closely." "China's local governments may have accumulated 40 trillion yuan ($5.8 trillion) of off-balance sheet debt, or even more, suggesting further defaults are in store, according to S&P Global Ratings," wrote Eric Lam. The Indian rupee may fall to 75 against the dollar, wrote A Thapliyal. "It is inevitable. India's dependence on foreign capital flows and its higher inflation rate (despite recent low outturn) make the medium-term case for a weaker rupee." Better to have low growth than to have a recession. That will really hurt emerging markets.