Sunday, October 28, 2018

The Chinese may have everything, we have E-Rickshaws.

"Has the investment cycle turned?" asked N Rajadhyaksha. "There are convincing signs that it has." There is an increase in demand for steel and cement and in import of capital goods. Corporate deleveraging has begun, which means companies are paying of their debts, and, "Seasonally adjusted capacity utilization is now at a 5-year high. It is also above the long term average." The output gap has nearly closed which means that any rise in demand will lead to inflation. A "typical Indian investment cycle lasts for 12 quarters, with an acceleration of seven quarters followed by a slowdown of five quarters. RBI researchers think that "the current investment recovery will peak in 2023" but "A quick calculation based on this estimate suggests that India has lost around 75 basis points of potential growth over the past decade." This being India the same figures lead to diametrically opposite opinion. A Barman thinks that "economic indicators -- especially markets that try to sniff out trends ahead of anything else -- are sagging". Foreign portfolio investors " have sucked out nearly Rs 19,000 crore from India" because "a survey of the annual results of about a tenth of listed companies shows net profits down by a staggering 30%", according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). Overall lending is to fall to 10% in 2018-19 from 16% in 2014, according to Credit Suisse, the value of new projects was Rs 15.8 lakh crores while the value of stalled projects was Rs 10.1 lakh crores. Growth in employment has fallen from 4.2% in Financial Year (FY)17 to 3.8% in FY18. The biggest job losses have been in the telecom sector followed by education and training. The telecom sector may cut over 60,000 jobs. The diamond polishing industry could lose 100,000 jobs because of increased taxes on import of cut and polished diamonds. Businesses are shifting to China and Thailand. Indians spent over Rs 500 billion on smart phones made by Chinese companies in FY18. Our trade deficit with China is already in excess of $50 billion. How much more shall we give to the Chinese? However, we are ahead of the Chinese in one product. There are 1.5 million battery-powered E-Rickshaws and we are adding 11,000 every month. After 71 years of independence we are on our way to becoming a nation of rickshaw pullers. Naturally, all our airlines are facing bankruptcy as fuel costs rise and the rupee falls. We will need an additional $75 billion to fund our current account deficit, wrote Rajadhyaksha. No planes, no cars, only E-Rickshaws. Great.

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