Monday, October 22, 2018

How can you control the TINA factor?

"There are no viable alternatives to inflation targeting," wrote Prof V Dahejia in response to "recent appointments by the Narendra Modi-led government to the board of the Reserve Bank of India" which maybe construed as being "aimed at watering down, or ditching altogether, the monetary policy framework agreement between RBI and the Union Ministry of Finance". Pen pushing officials of the Finance Ministry had the audacity to ask members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), who are economists, to a meeting before the June meeting of the MPC so as to convince them not to increase interest rate. So now politicians and civil servants are conspiring to make the MPC useless by appointing party ideologues, like S Gurumurthy, as directors of RBI. Mr Gurumurthy is a chartered accountant by profession which means he is trained to count pennies, totally opposite to making sense of trillions of rupees in trade, investments and tariffs that the economists of the MPC are trained to do. There is no alternative to targeting inflation, "Unless one is proposing a return to a gold standard or some other commodity standard" which is a bad idea because it would severely restrict the government's ability to control money supply. Republicans floated the idea of going back to a gold standard, ditched by Richard Nixon in 1971, in the run up the presidential election in 2016 but it was dismissed by virtually all economists. The other alternative would be to link the rupee to the dollar at a rate of, say, 60-65 rupees to the dollar but, "According to the celebrated 'impossible trinity' or 'trilemma' of Nobel economist Robert Mundell, an economy cannot simultaneously fix the exchange rate and control its domestic monetary policy (read: policy interest rate as instrument, or price level as target) in the presence of an open capital market." Which means we will be bound by actions of the US Federal Reserve. "This is perhaps the first time in recent memory when Indian inflation is expected to be muted despite higher global oil prices, a weaker rupee and a poor monsoon. They are usually catalysts for accelerating inflation," wrote N Rajadhyaksha. Perhaps, the reason for low inflation in the face of so many adverse factors lies in low food and commodity prices which have resulted in a sharp drop in earnings of farmers, wrote Prof Himanshu. Popularity for Modi has risen in urban areas, which profit from low food prices, and fallen in rural areas which are suffering, wrote R Kishore. Markets cannot be controlled, but inflation can. This is the TINA factor -- 'There Is No Alternative'.

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