Wednesday, October 31, 2018

What good are accurate figures if we have no solution?

It is not just job losses that cause unemployment in India, but, "India has also been suffering from slow creation of jobs, particularly in manufacturing where capital and machines are preferred over humans for greater efficiencies and higher productivity," wrote T Edwin. Even if jobs are created it is difficult to find people with relevant skills. Staffing company Teamlease, for instance, claims that it manages to find people to fill about half the open positions for various employers it works with." However, the Employees Provident Fund's (EPFO) recent payroll report mentions that there were 14.56 million "new" subscribers during September 2017-August 2018, wrote KRS Sunder, but a report by Prof R Kapoor "cites government submission to Lok Sabha to show that of the claimed 171.4 million accounts, only 22% received contributions during 2015-16". False statistics are being used by the government for electoral advantage. That does not matter, wrote R Chakraborty of Teamlease. "All new formal jobs may not be new jobs but they are all new formal jobs. And given India's battle is less about having a job (India has very few poor who are unemployed) but assuring youth a formal job with decent wages and human capital building, needs to be duly measured, acknowledged and celebrated." The formal sector grants job security, minimum wages and regular working hours, which are lacking in the informal sector. "I'd like to make the case that India's official employment rate of about 5% is not a fudge because everybody who wants a job has a job; they just don't have the wages they want or need," wrote M Sabharwal. "India is a nation of enterprise dwarfs; we have 63 million enterprises of which 12 million don't have an address, 12 million work from home, only 6.4 million paid indirect taxes till GST, only 1.2 million pay social security, and only 18,500 companies have a paid-up capital of more than Rs 10 crore." In the heated political debate about the lack of jobs we need high frequency data to see how human labor is being replaced by automation because of an excess of capital in the world, wrote R Jagannathan. Figures for the number of people entering the job market varies from 7.5 million to 10-12 million, while figures for the number of jobs created vary from 6.22 million to 15 million, wrote Chakravarty and Ramesh. "If you go to any industrial belt, you will find an undercurrent of unrest due to three reasons -- first, the jobs or lack of it due to factors including automation; second, the quality of jobs; and third the insecurity in jobs due to over promotion of fixed-term employment," said AK Padmanabhan, President of the Centre for Indian Trade Unions. The problem is even worse in agriculture which employs over 40% of the workforce who are trapped in poverty with no means of escape, wrote R Kishore. Creating formal jobs is good but what if we lose informal ones in the process? Perhaps, it is better not to have accurate figures. Could be depressing.

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