Sunday, October 14, 2018

We Indians panic every few years. We're experts.

"The mood on Dalal Street is funereal. The swagger has gone, replaced by the unmistakable stench of fear. You know a bear market when you see one. It is here," wrote U Mukherjee about the stock markets in India. India is not alone, "the Shanghai index in China is down 28%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong down 25% and the Kospi in Korea down 18%. But far from comforting us, it should scare us even more. This is looking like an emerging market (EM) bear phase, which spells big trouble for us at a time when our own macro stability is fast spinning out of control. When your own house is on fire, you can hardly derive solace from the fact that the entire neighbourhood is as well." How can we have macroeconomic problems when our economy grew by 8.2% in the first quarter? It may look very high but the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of gross value added (GVA) has been nearly the same  for every quarter over the last two years, wrote M Chakravarty. Drag from external factors and inflation in agricultural products have been low. India is to be hit by a triple whammy of a falling rupee, rising crude oil prices and rising fiscal and current account deficits, wrote A Ranade. The rupee has fallen 15% this year and oil may hit $100 per barrel this quarter. "Every extra rupee on the exchange rate translates into an additional import burden of nearly Rs 12,000 crore on the current account (on an annualized basis). And every extra dollar per barrel is an additional outgo of Rs 8,000 crore." The current account deficit (CAD) may be over 3% this year and "Additional worries are in financing the balance of payments, which will be negative $30-40 billion." We have total foreign debt of $540 billion, "of which $222 billion is due for repayment by March 2019". To persuade foreign investors not to sell out of our bonds the Reserve Bank will need to raise interest rate to preserve the yield gap with the US. Every 25 basis hike in interest rate increases borrowing costs for the government by Rs 20,000 crore. Which will add to fiscal deficit. "More than $75 billion of foreign savings -- aka capital inflows -- will be needed to fund the estimated current account deficit for the fiscal year that will end March 2019," wrote N Rajadhyaksha. India escapes Argentina's fate because of remittances by Indians living abroad, wrote A Janes. Last year we received $69 billion, almost 3% of GDP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is facing political pressures before general elections by May next year. He can expect no sympathy because he tore into Congress for the same problems in 2014, and this makes for bad policy decisions. "The government is panicking and when that happens, markets panic even more." We have a crisis every few years. We have a lot of practice in panicking.

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