Recency bias means that events from now on will decide.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP will not fight the election on the basis of economic achievements in the last four years, though there have been some interesting landmarks," opined PV Rao Jr. India's economy has grown to fifth spot in the world at $2.6 trillion, the economy is growing at over 7%, important reforms like the Goods and Services Tax and the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Code have changed the way of doing business in India and has started at least 18 welfare schemes since elections in 2014. So why should Modi be shy of trumpeting his achievements from the ramparts? Because, economic growth "has not positively impacted people across the social spectrum and across the country. The 7.3% average growth rate is in realistic terms minimal and not optimal. It is not enough to generate jobs and profits and lead to further investments. What has sustained the economy in these four years is public expenditure. Private investment has been a laggard." Average economic growth rates over 5 years do not matter as much as growth just before elections because of 'recency bias', wrote S Chakrabarti. Agriculture, construction and manufacturing, which affect most people, show sharp recovery, according to M Bhusnurmath. The economy grew between 7.5% and 7.9% in the first quarter of this financial year, partly due to base effect because of a sharp slowdown in the first quarter of last fiscal, and partly due to growth in agriculture and manufacturing. "Five years ago, Team Modi succeeded with great aplomb in nailing the Singh government with simple but lethal social-media memes around anemic growth, high gasoline prices, a weak rupee and a string of corruption scandals," wrote A Mukherjee. "Now, the Congress Party wants to return the compliment in next year's election by using the same narrative of expensive gasoline, a wilting currency and alleged improprieties in the purchase of Rafale fighter aircraft from France's Dassault Aviation SA." The new GDP series based on 2011-12 showed that the economy grew at an average of over 8% during the 10 years of Congress led UPA government. The average growth may have been higher under the Congress but it completely mismanaged the economy in its second term which is what people remembered in 2014. "But, what we saw when we formed the government left us shocked! The state of the economy was much worse than expected," said Modi about 2014. In 2017, Modi had a 99% chance of winning re-election in 2019, said Ruchir Sharma. "However, the odds have shifted dramatically. Now it is a 50:50 election and a lot is going to come down to alliances again." Old slogans will not suffice and Modi needs a fresh narrative for 2019, thinks S Chakrabarti. A week being a long time in politics there is plenty of time for the opposition to muck it up.