Tuesday, August 28, 2018

High decibels to cover low delivery.

"India's economy is shrugging off global trade wars, relying on domestic consumption to stay on course to becoming the fastest-growing major economy this year," wrote A Nag. Demand for bank loans, manufactured goods and services have "remained solid". According to Reserve Bank of India, RBI, figures personal loans accounted for 96% of non-food bank credit in the last financial year. "This is not surprising given the recent trend in bank credit where corporates have nearly stopped taking loans and retail credit is now the only major segment that is growing for banks," said D Sinha. A study showed that Indians are buying more consumer durables, with 66% of households now owning a television, over 50% owning a refrigerator and 26.4% owning a washing machine. However, domestic real estate sector is still depressed, and most of the demand is in properties which are ready to move into. No wonder capacity utilization has risen to over 75%. Higher capacity utilization is good for the economy because companies would be expected to increase capacity by setting up new projects which will create more jobs. But if companies are not borrowing it means that new capacity is not being created and this will lead to increase in prices as supplies lag behind demand growth. Exports grew by 14.3% in July but our trade deficit in June was $16.61 billion, which was the highest in 61 months. Being reliant on domestic consumption means that as the economy grows it sucks in imports at a higher rate, so that we imported $44.3 billion worth of goods in June. This will increase current account deficit which may reach 2.8% this financial year, according to a report by the State Bank of India. This is being blamed on the high price of oil but it is our our non-oil, non-gold trade deficit that has increased from $0.40 billion in 2013-14 to $53.30 billion in 2017-18, showing how uncompetitive our industry has become, wrote M Chakravarty. "In 2017-18, exports of goods and services contributed about 12% of India's GDP. In contrast, exports made up over 42% of South Korea's GDP," wrote CEO of Niti Aayog A Kant. We must boost our exports if we are to keep growing. GDP figures for the June quarter are yet to be announced but we must discount a favorable base effect because of low growth in the same quarter last year, wrote Chakravarty. GDP growth is now calculated on base prices in 2011-12. Calculating back, based on the new series, the National Statistical Commission found that the economy grew by 10.23% in 2007-08 and by 10.78% in 2010-11, during the previous Congress-led government. This led to crowing by the Congress and the report was quickly withdrawn by this government. Data on farmer suicides, on employment and on poverty line have also not been released by this government, wrote Prof Himanshu. GDP growth alone is irrelevant unless it increases jobs and the standard of living. It is about who can make the most noise. Confuse people with decibels.

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