Wednesday, August 08, 2018

Only the winners are free.

In praise of globalization Prof Lawrence Summers wrote, "This has been more successful than could reasonably have been hoped. We have not seen a war between leading powers. Global living standards have risen faster than at any point in history. A material progress has coincided with even more rapid progress in combating hunger, empowering women, promoting literacy and extending life." But, there is "a growing suspicion on the part of electorates that globalization is an elite project that primarily benefits elites". "Somehow branches for financial institutions in foreign countries seem to be a higher priority than protections for displaced workers. And protection for intellectual property of global corporations is a more focal concern than preventing unfair competition from foreign companies that escape regulation." Those who lost their jobs because of free trade were not adequately compensated, and voted for Donald Trump in anger, wrote E Alden. Having levied 25% tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods Trump has announced 25% tariffs on another $16 billion. In retaliation China has imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on US goods, especially soybeans, to specifically hurt farmers who voted for Trump. This infuriated Trump who called the tariffs "vicious". "Completely free trade is unlikely because countries have vastly different economies in different stages of development, different degrees of domestic economic and political freedoms and separate currencies," wrote AG Shilling. If trade is completely free, weak countries will accumulate trade deficits, "Their currencies would collapse as foreign investors and locals flee and deplete foreign exchange reserves. It cost China $1 trillion to accommodate a capital flight in 2014." Collapse of asset price bubbles led to a flight of capital from East Asian countries in 1997, leading to a 70% devaluation of their currencies and restructuring of their economies by the IMF. Before that, in 1992, George Soros made one billion pounds by betting against the Bank of England, making him a legend in the history of financial wizadry. How economies differ was clearly demonstrated last week when the Reserve Bank of India and the Bank of England raised borrowing rates by 25 basis points, the Federal Reserve in the US kept its funds rate on hold while the Bank of Japan confessed that it has failed to reach its target of 2% inflation despite negative interest rate, wrote VA Nageswaran. Countries possess different quantities of natural resources. Oil producing nations want the highest price for oil, while consuming nations like India would like a very low price. Perfectly free trade may not be possible or even desirable. If trade is free of exploitation of the weak by the strong, as during colonialism, the results will be equitable for everybody. Resistance to trade may dissipate.

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