The International Monetary Fund has released its forecast for the Indian economy for this and the next financial years, wrote M Chakravarty. The GDP will grow 7.3% this year and by 7.5% the next, gross investment will grow by 32.2% this year and merchandise exports will jump by 13.2%. Money supply will increase, as will consumer inflation to 5.2%, and current account deficit will rise to 2.6% of GDP this year. Risks will come from higher oil prices and tightening of monetary policies in richer countries. Crude prices have been softening over the last four weeks because of increased output from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE, wrote N Damani. Increased output from Kazakhstan and Libya, with lower demand from China, has resulted in a glut which is having an effect on prices. The European Union is encouraging European companies not only to continue to do business with Iran but to increase business, said foreign policy chief Frederica Mogherini. Whether companies will be brave enough to risk US sanctions and how Iran reacts if its oil exports are completely cut off will have a huge effect on the price of crude and the Indian economy. Ominously, legendary investor Warren Buffett is sitting on a pile of cash because he thinks the market is overpriced. Indian markets are also zooming ever higher with no fear of a correction. Much of the growth has been due to massive government spending on infrastructure, "average road construction a day has been just under 20 km", wrote Seetharaman and Sharma. "In this context, there are big hopes for Bharatmala Pariyajana, an initiative to build 35,000 km of roads by 2022. Linked to Bharatmala is a flagship port modernisation initiative, Sagarmala, under which Rs 2.4 lakh crore (Rs 2.4 trillion) worth of projects have been awarded since 2015." We need to grow fast because the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS) shows that the "penetration of refrigerators has roughly doubled over the past decade to reach 30% in 2015-16", wrote Kundu and Bhattacharya. That is a pathetic statistic in a country where temperatures are above 30 Celsius for 8 months in the year. Not possessing a refrigerator means waste of money due to rotting of food and, more importantly, waste of time because food must be cooked before every meal, which prevents women from working. To make matters worse the government is to increase import tariffs on refrigerators, washing machines and televisions probably because indirect tax collections through the Goods and Services Tax have been short by Rs 400 billion. Just 9 months left for elections. Is there enough time?
No comments:
Post a Comment