Ups and downs of a seesaw economy.

"The Indian economy seems to be in the midst of strong growth rebound," wrote an editorial in the Mint. The Nikkei Purchasing Managers' Index for June was the highest since October 2016, showing strong expansion of the private sector. "Production of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, consumer durables, steel, cement -- which are proxies for overall economic activity -- show strong momentum. Rail as well as air traffic numbers have also been good." The bad news is that "Core inflation in June was 6.4%" and "the increase in bank credit is led by consumer rather than business borrowing". The Consumer Price Index, CPI rose to 5% in June while the Index of Industrial Production fell to a seven-month low of 3.2%. The good news is that oil prices fell after inventories in the US came in stronger than expected and the base effect could have a salutary effect on retail inflation in July. The Wholesale Price Index rose by 5.77% in June, the highest in four and a half years. The US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin indicated that some countries could take a longer time to reduce purchase of Iranian oil which is good news for India because the price of oil fell on the news and India has invested in Chabahar Port to facilitate trade with central Asian countries, bypassing Pakistan. Business confidence was lower in India in June than in the world, including BRIC nations. E-commerce accounted for only 1.5% of the overall retail market in India is 2017 but is expected to grow to 5.7% by 2022. A study in the US showed that online inflation was 3% lower than CPI inflation rate for the period 2014-17. But, companies cannot continue to sell at below cost price forever, so at some point e-retail companies have to increase prices to make profits or they will go out of business. State governments are having to borrow larger amounts to service their past debts. States are expected to raise Rs 1.38 trillion from the market in the June-September quarter of this year. This is in addition to increased borrowing by the Center because of increased fiscal deficit. Yields on 10-year benchmark bonds have risen by 46 basis points this year after rising by 81 basis points last year. Headwinds, such as rising oil prices, a slowdown in the construction sector, which is a source of earning of the rural poor, and huge bad loans in banks, restricting their capacity to lend, do not matter because "The strengthened foundations of the economy will become more evident as it continues to accelerate," wrote Kumar and Pai. Economic advisers from abroad have been sent packing and protectionist policies are in favor. This, after the Prime Minister's stirring defense of globalization at Davos in January. Various sectors of our economy are inversely related -- one part has to fall for another one to rise.