Friday, July 27, 2018

'Vicious' is the only way they know.

"For the last quarter-century, growth in China has been remarkably stable," wrote N Smith. Growth has never dropped below 6% officially, and there has definitely never been a recession. The US and other developed economies have gone through numerous recessions. There are 3 theories to tackle a recession. Fiscal stimulus, or increased government spending, monetary policies, which are lower interest rates and quantitative easing if necessary, or doing nothing. China used fiscal and monetary policies for short duration, but "In addition to spending more, China also directed banks to lend lots more money. The World Bank estimated that increased bank credit represented 40% of China's stimulus. Much of the lending was done by China's four large state-owned banks. The money went to infrastructure, real estate and all kinds of corporate projects, many of which were carried our by the country's state-owned enterprises." But if banks are owned by the state then lending by banks becomes part of government spending or fiscal policy. The difference probably is that the government has to borrow from the market by selling bonds whereas banks are using money deposited by savers. The Chinese have the highest rate of savings in the world, at 46%. So, instead of social security, China is creating employment for its people by lending money from government banks to government companies to create infrastructure. That must be a much more productive use of money? A study showed that "more than half of China's infrastructure investment has destroyed economic value". There are "hundreds of deserted cities across China where construction has ground to a halt", wrote S Chao. Enter Donald Trump. A senior Chinese government official predicted that hundreds of its companies may go bankrupt due to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. "It's hard to predict how this trade war will develop and to what extent," said Du Wanhua. "But one thing is sure: if the US imposes tariffs on Chinese imports following an order $60 billion, $200 billion, or even $500 billion, many Chinese companies will go bankrupt." In an indication of government thinking Premier Li Keqiang said recently that "fiscal policy should be more active". The International Monetary Fund warned that "a reversion to credit-driven stimulus would further increase vulnerabilities that could eventually lead to an abrupt adjustment". China's total debt has risen from 141% of GDP in 2008 to 256% by mid-2017. While household and governments debts are manageable, corporate debt is 163% of GDP. China retaliated to US tariffs by imposing tariffs on soya bean imports from the US to specifically hurt farmers who support Trump. "They are being vicious in what will be their failed attempt. We were being nice -- until now!" said Trump. China is never nice to India so a collapse of its economy will make things more equal. We live in hope.

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