Friday, July 06, 2018

If only Trump did not insist on keeping his word.

As promised, the US imposed 25%  tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports yesterday. China immediately retaliated by imposing tariffs on $34 billion worth of US goods, especially on soya beans. State sponsored news site Xinhua put out a terse piece reporting that the "Chinese Commerce Ministry said the United States has ignited the largest trade war in economic history". "The Chinese, having vowed not to fire the first shot, was forced to stage counter-attacks to protect the core national interests and interests of its people." It refrained from calling the US "eunuchs" and "paper tigers", like the state sponsored Global Times did, when China lost its claim to the South China Sea at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. Why soya beans? Because soya beans are farmed in areas that voted heavily for Trump in 2016. China hopes that by hurting Trump voters it will help defeat Trump in 2020. But that is still 2 years away, which is an enormous time in economics. "President Trump indicated to reporters on Thursday that he will bump it up to $50 billion worth of Chinese goods in two weeks if Beijing continues with tit-for-tat measures. And if China did not back down, he warned that he would up the stakes, first to tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, and then to $500 billion, which is pretty much the entire complement of Chinese exports to the US," wrote C Rajghatta. China could resort to unconventional means to hurt US trade, say supporters of China. In the past the government has instructed people not to buy goods of Japanese companies, to show its displeasure. The problem is that China has a trade surplus of $375 billion with the US and salaries of millions of Chinese workers depend on this trade. There are groups in many nations calling for a boycott of Chinese products. China says that is impossible because it would disrupt global value chains that are totally dependent on China. At least one American saw acute short term pain but enormous gains in the long term for the US if it stopped all Chinese imports. With dire warnings of trade war damaging trade and economies across the globe, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 99.74 points, or 0.4%, higher yesterday. India has a small surplus of $23 billion with the US but has been shown no mercy. "Trump's minions were not impressed either with New Delhi's projections that it would be buying billions worth of American airplanes, energy, and armaments in the coming decade, which would wipe the current $23 billion trade deficit." There is a possibility that the US could impose sanctions against India if it buys the S400 Triumf air defence missile system from Russia. The rupee is feeling the strain. Why does Trump insist on keeping his campaign promises? Why can't he lie, like politicians do?

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