Saturday, July 14, 2018

What do they gain by silly predictions?

"News broke that India's GDP is the world's sixth largest, crossing that of France, the world Cup finalist," wrote S Chakrabarti. However, we must "acknowledge that India's $2.6 trillion economy houses 1.2 billion people, while a mere 67 million French produce a GDP of $2.58 trillion". "India's current annual per capita income in exchange rate terms is a shade under $2,000, and around $7,200 in PPP terms. Under both calculations, India is ranked between 140 and 155 globally." "Only when the average annual income of a citizen, in exchange rate terms, is comfortably above $4,500, is a country classified as middle-income. High income countries are those where average annual income is above $12,500." GDP, or the gross domestic product is flawed at best, but is a magical indicator, wrote L Bershidsky. M Feldstein argued that improvement in quality is not measured unless there is an increase in price. For instance, improvement in healthcare, wherein a patient is discharged earlier than last year is not measured so GDP underestimates growth. J Stiglitz, on the other hand, argued that GDP overestimates growth because it includes government spending which maybe "inefficient or even counterproductive". Despite the debate, "As much as GDP calculation isn't an exact science, the results usually make sense." After the economic crisis of 1991, when India had to pledge 67 tons of gold to the UK and Switzerland to survive we have not suffered a recession for near 27 years, while the US suffered a recession in 1990-91, in 2001 due to the dot-com crisis and the subprime crisis in 2008-09. A recession is when the real GDP declines for 6 months, which is two quarters, or more. India's growth rate soared to 7.7% in the last quarter of 2017-18, ending 31 March, and is predicted to be around 7.4% in this financial year. Despite "several significant headwinds"  the economy is growing strongly and this is going to continue in the long term as the economy adjusts to current changes, such as GST, wrote Kumar and Pai of Niti Aayog. "The strengthened foundations of the economy will become more evident as it continues to accelerate. As will greater sustainability of the drivers, renewing the virtuous cycle of domestic and foreign investment in the world's fastest-growing large economy." But, where they see a "virtuous cycle" of non-stop growth C Kalbag sees rising bond yields, a sell-out by foreign investors and rising fiscal deficit. Citi predicts that India will be the world's largest economy by 2050 if it grows continuously at 8%, or the second largest if it grows at 7.5-7.7%. That is 32 years of continuous growth. No harm in impossible predictions. After all, "in the long run we are all dead."

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