Wednesday, July 04, 2018

Can you stop being strongman?

As is its habit, China has been snarling at India again, warning us that the US Indo-Pacific strategy will cost us dear. "The US has been generous about its fondness for India in rhetoric. But whether this fondness is what India needs the most, or if the value is worth the price, remains undetermined," wrote and editorial in the state sponsored Global Times. "The subtext of the Untied States is that it hopes India can play an essential role in balancing the rise of China." Rather than support the US India should learn how to become powerful from China. "From this perspective, it is China, not the United States, that can provide more support and knowledge to India." But it hasn't so far. Chinese troops have been constantly intruding into India territory, threatening local people and scuffling with our border forces. Why is China supporting Pakistan with economic aid if not to weaken India and hamper US efforts to bring peace to Afghanistan? India has a right to be worried and look for friends elsewhere. The US strategy in the Pacific has tacit support of all the countries in the region which have been impacted by Chinese belligerence. Xi Jinping's options are limited. He has maneuvered himself to become the undisputed strongman of China and his campaign against corruption has put many powerful people in prison. Any sign of weakness and he can be overthrown. And that can mean prison for life. He should remember the Gang of Four, who were doing the same things that he is doing, arresting opponents and banning any criticism. They received long prison sentences. Mao Zedong's third wife Jiang Qing received a suspended death sentence and died in prison in 1991. At some point China has to rebalance its economy away from debt at which time it may fall into recession. US tariffs on Chinese goods are due to start on 6 July. China has vowed retaliation in kind. "The US has maintained hegemony in the military and financial fields for many decades. Now it is pursuing economic hegemony," said an editorial in the China Daily. US hegemony is definitely preferable to Chinese hegemony, at least to us in India. In desperation China has issued a travel advisory to its citizens against traveling to the US. The US is not South Korea that banning tourists from China will have a serious effect on its economy. Despite all the trouble it is facing the West will dominate the world this century as it did the last one, wrote Prof U Balakrishnan. "China, meantime, has three obvious bubbles that are increasingly feeding one another: borrowing, credit and property," wrote W Pesek. Having become a strongman Xi might have to exercise more and more strength to stay in power. We will enjoy watching.

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