Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Why such enmity against the middle class?

Politicians in most countries tend to favor the rich, who contribute to their election spending, but in India politicians actively work to transfer wealth from the middle class to the rich. One constant refrain is that interest rate should be low, preferably near zero, like in the US and EU. It is always in a good cause. Commerce and Industry Minister, Sitharaman wants a cut of 200 basis points in one fell swoop because it will make loans cheaper for small businesses to expand. Banks are wary of small businesses because of a higher risk profile, which is not going to change by a lower interest rate. Also, the same government has been actively pushing the Goods and Services Tax, which will bring small businesses into the tax net they were avoiding till now. They will lose their price advantage and will be driven out of business by the big boys. No wonder the rich are smiling. The other aggression against the middle class is the constant advice to invest in shares or equity mutual funds. We are told that the only way to save money for old age is to invest in shares. An article by the president of a mutual fund calculates that if you are 40 years old and spend Rs 50,000 per month today then you will need Rs 1.33 million per month at the age of 60 years, at 5% inflation for 20 years. Which means you need to build up a corpus of Rs 25 million to maintain your lifestyle. So you must invest in shares which will give you at least 10% returns per year. Scary. But not true. Assuming you married after completing education and getting confirmed employment and assuming you have 2 children your expense on their school and healthcare alone would be at least Rs 20,000 per month. College education has become hugely expensive as the government has increased fees to a level only a few can afford. At the age of 60 years the children will be working and other costs, such as entertainment and travel to work, will fall. On the other hand health costs will rise and companies will refuse to insure you as you get older. Treatment of cancer costs Rs 5-10 million today and will rise so your corpus will not be sufficient. Dialysis costs Rs 10,000 per week. Foreign investors hold 20% of our market and if some of that money flows out prices will collapse. Promoters of companies have borrowed money from banks against their own shareholding, which means that they have no investment in the companies they are running. If a company fails the promoter suffers nothing, shares become zero. Indians do not trust our share market, having been stung by scams previously but the fall in interest rate, along with the high price of gold, is forcing some into stocks. Mutual funds charge high commissions. Sadly, lower returns from term deposits in banks has pushed households into shares, so that investment in shares has risen to 0.7% of gross national disposable income from 0.2% in 2011-12. Meanwhile, investment guru, Jim Rogers says turmoil is coming. Indians lose again. Poor Indians.

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