Monday, August 22, 2016

As long as we have politicians we will have hawala.

When Indians talk of 'hawala' they generally mean illicit or black money sent abroad and converted into foreign currency. What we do not know is that there is apparently Rs 20 trillion worth, about 15% of GDP, of hawala trade inside India. This kind of trade is normally used by criminals, such as smugglers, but can also be used by legitimate businesses to avoid paying taxes. Why is this news suddenly? A 67 year old man died, presumably of natural causes, while traveling by Geetanjali Express, from Kolkata to Mumbai. When police opened his bags they were stunned to discover Rs 10 million in bundles of notes and 1 kg of gold biscuits, which means pure gold. In addition to Rs 20 trillion in cash, 35,000 tons of gold and 200,000 tons of silver are sold illegally across the country every year. States in India collect entry tax, or octroi, on goods entering state borders so how can tons of precious metal be moved around without detection? Unless politicians, civil servants and police, which means the state government, is intimately involved. Some people, Seth, Qureshi, Jain, have been caught but cases have petered out. " It has never stopped, it will never stop," said an official of the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence. The Prime Minister is a great believer in cashless society. If there is no cash all transactions will have to go through banks and so will be easily traced. There can be no money laundering and no tax evasion. Really? All it will do is remove all privacy from ordinary people and make us vulnerable to any politician, civil servant or policeman who wants to know every detail of our lives. Will it stop hawala? No. The rupee is not the only currency in the world. There are $1.46 trillion in dollar notes in circulation in the world, according to the Federal Reserve. Around 9 countries use the US dollar as their national currency. The total amount of all currencies in the world amount to an equivalent of $80.9 trillion. If people can move tons of gold there is nothing to stop suitcases full of dollars, euros or sterling being moved around as a kind of parallel economy. The government might find that the country has become a great deal more dangerous if foreign currencies become the favored method of payment, because the government will have no control over money supply. In Europe you can buy prepaid cards in small denominations without proof of identity. These can be used as methods of payment as 1 Euro gets you Rs 76. It is not just Indians but people all over the world trust cash. If there is no cash the state can steal our money openly in the form of negative interest rates, in which we have to pay to keep our earnings in bank accounts. To stop hawala punish politicians and civil servants heavily. Otherwise leave us alone.

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