Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Are Indians born to be suckers?

Indians love physical assets, like real estate and gold. Those who have the money buy properties in the belief that with a population of 1.30 billion, and growing, and economic growth increasing disposable incomes for a growing number of people, demand for real estate can only keep on increasing. Therefore, prices will keep on increasing into the distant future. However, you cannot buy Rs 15,000 worth of property so those who have less money to invest buy gold. Rs 15,000 will get you 5 grams of gold. The reason for the love of physical assets is that deep down Indians do not trust the government to control inflation and they have been hurt repeatedly by high inflation with low interest rates which have eroded their wealth. So far half the value of any real estate deal was paid in cash, or black money, and with a succession of scams creating untold trillions of black money property prices were zooming. In 2013, Chief of ITC bought a house in Delhi, built on 800 sq yards, for Rs 850 million, in white money, which works out to about $1,500 per sq foot. Similar to prices in New York. What is he getting for this astronomical price? Only 55% of homes in Delhi are connected to a sewer network, the rest drain straight into the Yamuna River. Our drinking water comes from the Yamuna. The cycle of life. Politicians have mixed feelings about the real estate market in India. They love it because their black money is invested in real estate and the higher the prices the more the tax collections. On the other hand the state loses taxes on black money and criminals gain enormous power, so politicians have fixed 'circle rates' which are taken as the minimum value for any property. Circle rates have gone so high that sales of real estate have stalled so Gurgaon recently reduced circle rates by 15% to energize the market. When prices were booming people would pay for apartments before building work had started and builders would start many projects at the same time and use the money to complete old ones. A kind of ponzi scheme. With sales stagnant builders cannot complete promised projects and people are suffering. Instead of creating wealth real estate is causing financial stress and, if a price correction is severe, will suffer huge losses. Politicians and our business fellows do not want people to invest in physical assets and force down interest rate to give negative returns from bank deposits. They want people to invest in shares. This enables business fellows to borrow from banks by pledging their shares, so that effectively they are running companies without holding any stake in them. They are then at liberty to plunder the company without losing a penny. Sadly, the high price of gold and real estate has forced ordinary investors into stocks which are in bubble territory. In India there are 2 suckers born every minute.

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