Saturday, August 27, 2016

Are humans programmed to end our species?

It is happening already. Capgemini is to replace 40% of the work done by its resource management group by IBM's cognitive management system, Watson. Whether IBM named the system after Dr Watson, who chronicled cases solved by Sherlock Holmes, we do not know. Maybe, they want to imply that this work is elementary and does not need humans. Singapore is testing self-driving taxis, which do not need human drivers. The app based taxi service, Uber is to test 100 vehicles in Pittsburgh later this month. Since no human will be involved these taxis will run 24 hours a day, they will be safe for women and there will be no traffic jam because they will run strictly according to rules and will avoid busy roads. Eventually no one will own cars, just call a taxi when you need, which will save huge spaces for parking. Not just in driving. Production of cars is being taken over by robots. The Ford plant at Sanand in Gujarat has 453 robots, with 90% of the work automated. Robots can work 24 hours without need for rest, always get a perfect finish, do not need to be paid, do not go on strike and do not fall ill. If one breaks down get a new one. If we make high quality goods our exports will increase which will add to our GDP growth. Our exports are low which is why India is a poor country. Trouble is, the economy will grow without producing jobs for the vast numbers of young people who are joining the workforce every year. Manufacturing has fallen from 16.41% of GDP in 1989-90 to 16.2% of GDP in 2015-16. That means we have to import virtually everything, resulting in perpetual negative balance of trade. Manufacturing usually employs the largest number of people but if robots replace humans then unemployment will increase. The massive increase in automation and artificial engineering is probably being driven by falling fertility rates in developed countries. In Europe fertility rates have fallen to below replacement levels, as low as 1.25 per woman in Spain. They maybe preparing for the possibility of robots taking over jobs of nursing and caring for increasing number of old people. It is very tempting to replace soldiers with robots. Scientists warn of humanity being wiped out if cyborg soldiers are created, which is stupid because they are busy developing artificial intelligence. They may claim that they intend to use AI only for benevolent purpose but if the technology is out there people will use it for killing. If Obama uses drones to kill so-called terrorists then Hezbollah will use commercial drones to deliver bombs. These are available at $400 each. As automation increases we will be forced to reduce numbers of human beings. Will we end up as Solaria, as Asimov had imagined all those years ago?

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