Tuesday, June 21, 2016

This scarcity is not a management problem.

As Indians it is shaming to read that India has the largest number of poor people in the world. The reason people are poor is because they are not employed in productive, well paid jobs. There are fewer jobs because investment has fallen, people have lost jobs because exports have fallen 17 months in a row and there is an enormous deficit of skilled job seekers, so that companies are having to re-employ retired staff. So, how many people are unemployed? " There are 13 million people in the workforce, available for work, who are at present unemployed, 30% of them women. In addition, there are around 52 million people, 65% of them women, in 'disguised unemployment', such low-productivity work that withdrawing them would make little difference to to the level of output. Then there another 52 million, all women, who are not in the labour force but would be available for work if there were adequate opportunities for productive employment. Thus there are 117 million people, 78% of them women, who need to be absorbed into new and more productive jobs," writes a professor. The GDP will expand by 27% if women constitute half the workforce, said Christine Lagarde. The solution is simple: create more productive jobs for women and soon India will be a rich country. It may not be that simple. In Japan the number of women in the workforce has increased to 70.1% but the economy is still stagnating. Because women took jobs that men lost so the number of working men declined. Ominously, a report says that there will be fewer productive jobs by 2022 so that half a billion people will be stuck in agriculture, there fortunes dependent on the fickle monsoon. To create more jobs we need to increase our manufacturing but there are many hurdles, such as lack of skills, insufficient investment, difficulty of doing business, rigidity in labour laws and inadequate social security systems. Apparently, all our problems can be solved by '5S' solutions. What are they? " First, understand the System. Then project plausible Scenarios of the future states of the system. Thereafter, Steer Synergistic Solutions," writes a former member of the now defunct Planning Commission. What will this do? " The system model focuses on the interactions among forces. By focusing on the interactions, it anticipates fixes that can backfire, which conventional mangement systems approaches that pursue solutions in silos are often blind to." Quite, crystal clear. Why such alphabetical gymnastics? Because the author is trying desperately to be politically correct. He is avoiding the only solution that will surely work and that is: Reduce the population. If you cannot increase one side of the equation reduce the other side. It will balance.

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