Sunday, June 12, 2016

A thousand cuts, one embrace at a time.

There can be no doubt that China is our biggest, most dangerous and most powerful enemy. It is doing everything in its power to stop India making any progress. Not just India, China is a threat to all its neighbors, including Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan and Philippines. Outgoing President of Philippines, Benigno Aquino twice compared the Chinese government to that of Nazi Germany. China's friends are Pakistan, the biggest state sponsor of terrorism in the world, whose business is controlled by its rapacious army, North Korea, a brutal dictatorship, ruled by a fat despot, and Zimbabwe, another brutal dictatorship, ruled by a geriatric despot. It is not surprising that China is blocking India's entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group which was apparently formed after India's first nuclear weapon test in 1974. Three countries, the US, Russia and China, with the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons are members along with tiny countries like, Finland, Denmark and Iceland, which have none. This group was designed to stop countries from acquiring fissile material to build bombs but has not been able to stop Pakistan and North Korea from making their own atom bombs, with Iran on the threshold of making one. Prime Minister Modi is keen on renewable and nuclear energy which will allow us to meet our enormous hunger for electricity, while meeting our obligations under the climate change agreement. Out of the top 10 producers of uranium Uzbekistan, Namibia and Niger are not members of this group and so could meet our requirements of uranium but Modi wants an assured supply. India has just become a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime and also wants to become member of the Wassenaar Arrangement, which was set up to control dual-use technology for conventional arms and Australia Group, which was set up to control the production of chemical and biological weapons. Modi has obtained the support of the US, Mexico and Switzerland but China and Turkey are adamant in their opposition. China's military strength is underpinned by its economy, which is the second largest in the world after the US. We are no match for it in any department so we have to resort to 'death by a thousand cuts', just like China's stooge, Pakistan is trying to do to India. As China's economy slows down stress inside will grow. The Communist Party is terrified of losing control if large numbers of workers lose their jobs. So it tries to stimulate growth through more investment, fueled by debt, which has seen corporate debt balloon to 145% of the GDP. At the same time bubbles are building up which will burst at some point. We should increase pressure by building business with Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan. If Donald Trump wins in November that will increase the pressure further. If China implodes it will be a day to celebrate. We hope.

No comments: