Thursday, June 23, 2016

If the US is concerned why are we so casual?

Although the official inflation rate in the US was 0.7% last year Americans put it at a much higher level, some as high as 10%. Why? Because the official rate is based on aggregates of different groups of goods and services, while individuals use particular product in each group whose price might have risen much more. Also prices vary in different areas, so household experiences differ. While the Federal Reserve in the US is very sensitive to inflation the authorities in India are casually indifferent. Yesterday a report from the State Bank of India suggested that the RBI should target 5% as the lowest rate for retail inflation. One reason why present Governor of the Reserve Bank, Raghuram Rajan was treated so shabbily, that he was forced to resign, is that he is seen as an 'inflation hawk'. Just a couple of days back he said that you cannot have " low inflation and lower interest rates ". Why this diametric opposite views on inflation and interest rate? Because they help the largest borrower, which is the government. If the bond yields fall the government pays less to service its debts and inflation erodes the value of the past debts. Thus when the Congress was running large fiscal deficits the debt to GDP ratio was falling because of high inflation. Citibank calculated that the debt to GDP ratio fell from 90% in 2003-04 to 68.5% in 2013-14. Low interest rate helps the rich to borrow cheap, because they can provide collateral, and buy up assets which makes them richer. Thus, very low interest rates after the crisis in 2008 has made rich people richer, so that 1% of people now hold $78.8 trillion, which is 47% of the total global wealth. The total value of real estate has reached $217 trillion, which is 2.7 times the world GDP. The middle class loses because savings earn less interest and the poor lose because high prices decrease their standard of living. Thus high inflation is a tax on the middle class and the poor and low interest rates help to transfer wealth from the middle class to the rich. Lower interest rates force people into physical assets, such as gold and real estate, to protect against inflation, while financial savings rate falls. The Bank of International Settlements warned that low interest rates lead to misallocation of capital because of easy borrowing. That has happened in India where business fellows have borrowed vast amounts, which they are unable to repay, so that banks are sitting on around Rs 6 trillion of bad loans. Like in the US, the inflation expectation of Indian households is far higher than the actual rate of retail inflation which was 5.76% in May. That is why Rajan said," We are abandoning the ways of the past that benefited the few at the expense of the many." That is why the few are furious and Rajan has to go. Scum.

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