Monday, June 27, 2016

How much worse does it have to get before it gets better?

The Vix index, or the volatility index, has jumped 49.33% to 25.76, but it is still below 30, which would indicate extreme volatility. The euro has fallen to 1.10 to the dollar, from around 1.14 and the pound has fallen to 1.34 to the dollar, from 1.50, from just before the Brexit vote. In hindsight, it seems that the Federal Reserve was wise not to raise interest rate at its last meeting on 15 June. The Eurozone, comprising of 19 countries, Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark and Japan have negative interest rates so a rate rise in the US would have put financial markets in confusion. Negative interest rates are meant to weaken the currency, which increases exports by making them cheaper, and increase inflation. Is it working? Probably not. The European Central Bank has been buying back government bonds, worth $90 billion per month, to increase liquidity in banks, in an effort to force them to lend to businesses because negative interest rate means they have to pay to park money with the central bank, which hurts their profits, but has now resorted to buying junk corporate bonds because there are no more government bonds left to buy. OECD, a grouping of 34 countries, fears that members are trapped in low growth trajectory and are not making the structural adjustments needed to stimulate growth. David Cameron tried a program of austerity to reduce government spending and budget deficit after the financial crash of 2008 but that caused enormous public anger, because they blamed falling living standards on globalization and increased spending on immigrants, which made people vote for Brexit. After all, Greece is a part of the Eurozone and has been made to suffer extreme hardship by Germany so that educated people are having to search through rubbish bins to find food, as Germany has built up a huge current account surplus, helped by the weak euro. Older people in Britain voted for Brexit because they did not see why Germany should be the power in Europe when their generation had to make huge sacrifices for World War II while 72% of those between 18 and 24 years voted to remain a part of Europe. Is it any wonder that ordinary people everywhere are fed up of globalization, which they see as helping the rich to increase their wealth by investing wherever returns are good while folks back home remained poor. Since record low interest rates and quatitative easing have not worked is it time to try something different? Low interest rates trap money in losing companies, depressing growth. If interest rates are raised bad companies will fail which will free up money to lend to productive concerns. No politician will allow companies to fail when unemployment rates are already high. Until there is another crisis. We wait till then.

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