Saturday, January 02, 2016

Monetary integration with political separation, surely impossible?

" The current non-system is pushing the world towards competitive monetary easing, to no one's ultimate benefit. Developing a consensus for free trade and responsible global citizenship - and thus resisting parochial pressures - would set the stage for the sustainable growth the world desperately needs," writes Reserve Bank Governor, Raghuram Rajan. He is concerned about a low rate of global economic growth, which is reducing demand and the need for new investments. Rich countries need higher growth rate to fund social security costs of aging populations and for wages to rise, to reduce rising inequality. They could spend on infrastructure but that would increase savings due to increasing anxiety about tax increases. " That means overcoming deficit fetishism. It makes sense for countries like the US and Germany that can borrow at negative long-term interest rates to borrow to make the investments that are needed," writes Professor Joseph Stiglitz. Unfortunately he realises," The obstacles the global economy faces are not rooted in economics, but in politics and ideology." Exactly. As the then Prime Minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker said," We all know what to do; we just don't know how to get re-elected after we have done it." But maybe they do not know what to do. Economists are beginning to understand that the world has changed and what they learnt may not solve today's problems. Human beings do not behave according to mathematical models. Not only will individuals try to find ways to game the system, as the wealthy do when they spend millions of dollars to find loopholes in tax laws to save billions of dollars in taxes, but millions of people will behave in irrational manner, as when Delhi voted overwhelmingly for Kejriwal because he promised 20,000 liters of water free every month. Economists believe that they have to find new models which will incorporate the changes in society. But, surely that is impossible? We do not have a global parliament elected by all the peoples of the world. Politicians are elected by their own people and are expected to serve their interests, even if they are harmful to other countries. Colonialism was a perfect, if extreme, example of that, in which European countries enslaved other nations and plundered their resources to grow very wealthy. Although very similar in culture and religion the European Union is being pulled apart under the twin stresses of economic recession and refugee migration. The US has just negotiated the Trans Pacific Partnership with 11 countries which will tie them in strict trading rules. The US is pursuing a similar trade deal with Europe, called the TTIP. Closer integration of trade with complete separation of political systems, which means each country adopting its monetary policy to take advantage of the system. That is what is frustrating Raghuram Rajan.

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