Sunday, January 17, 2016

Biblical prophesies for today's global economy?

A partially tongue in cheek article tries to match predictions made in the Book of Revelations in the Bible which predicts that the end of the world will coincide with the appearance of the four horsemen of the apocalypse. Famous investor, George Soros sees a crisis in global markets like that in 2008 emanating from China. The Royal Bank of Scotland advises investors to sell everything as a crash maybe imminent. So, what are the 4 horsemen of a possible financial apocalypse? The one on a white horse is that of deflation. Commodity prices are dropping, led by oil. With prices dropping to below $30 a barrel, yesterday's lifting of sanctions means that Iran will soon be exporting its oil. Crude oil prices could drop to $20 a barrel or even lower. It is disaster for countries like Venezuela whose economy contracted by 7.1% and inflation is running at 141.5%. Venezuela needs a break-even price of $117 a barrel but analysts predict a price of $50 a barrel by the end of the decade. The Baltic Dry Index, which is the cost of shipping commodities, has fallen by 70%, showing that the global economy is grinding to a halt. The South African Rand has collapsed by 9%, bringing fears of a recession and a credit downgrade to junk status. The rider on the red horse signifies China which saw foreign reserves fall by a whopping $512.66 billion in 2015, almost twice India's total annual export. As China continues to devalue its currency, the yuan, analysts fear that China is exporting its deflation to the rest of the world as its products become even cheaper. Devaluation of the yuan could lead to a tit-for-tat devaluations of other currencies, as nations fight to defend their export markets. The black horse denotes currency wars. Interest rate in European countries are negative, which means that instead of receiving interest on your deposit you have to pay the bank. This is an attempt to penalise savings, so that increased spending will lead to growth, and to stop foreigners buying Euros, so that the exchange rate of the Euro against other currencies stays low. Lastly, the one on the pale horse denotes debt. Central banks and the private sector have been piling on debt because of record low interest rates. The Bank of International Settlements says the debt of the non-financial sector has increased to 265% of GDP globally. Non-financial debt of China is up by 235%, of Hong Kong by 258% and of South Korea by 228%. For India the External Commercial Borrowing of companies has increased to 9% of nominal GDP, of which 39% is hedged against a fall in the value of the rupee. No wonder that yields of emerging market bonds are rising as markets factor in a rising risk of default. If indeed there is a global recession the suffering will be exclusively felt by the poor. Starvation will lead to war, which will lead to famine, which will lead to disease and death. Not a happy new year, is it?

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