Monday, January 25, 2016

Economy a hostage to politics, is there any hope?

Economists cannot account for politics because the behavior of politicians cannot be calculated. Politics is the only reason why India remains poor while China, South Korea and Singapore have zoomed ahead. A paper on the effects of politics on our economy from 1993-2014 suggests that in the nineties deals were open, which means they were transparent, and ordered, which means they were honored. From 2002-10, during the Congress regime when commodity prices were booming, deals became closed, when mines were distributed to friends and relatives. When the extent of corruption became public and revenues dropped because of stagnant growth deals became disordered, as when the government tried to impose retrospective taxation. So, what is happening under the BJP government? " After a decade of ossification, the landscape is changing at a rapid rate for India Inc. as: (1) An unconventional PM calls time on the traditional model of subsidy funded consumption growth and crony capitalism driven capex growth in India; (2) A gutsy RBI governor brings about multiple policy changes to radically increase competition in the Financial Services Sector; and (3) Technology lowers the barriers to entry into sectors such as lending, consumer goods and auto," says a report by Ambit Capital. And therein lie the problems. After carefully constructing a system where a few made billions from resources and votes were bought with handouts, paid for by punitive taxes, the whole edifice is in danger of collapse. That is why they have stopped all business in the Rajya Sabha so that all reforms will be blocked. The monsoon session was because of alleged shady deals by Lalit Modi, the winter session because of an alleged murder of a 'minority' and they are preparing to disrupt the budget session because of the tragic suicide of  a Dalit student. It is not that they are concerned about issues but it is an attempt to find any cause not to let the Rajya Sabha function so that the economy cannot grow and they have chance to win power back in 2019. Market capitalization of public sector banks have dropped so low, because so much money has been stolen from them, that 5 banks can be bought for $1.5 billion, when a start up, like Flipkart is valued at $15 billion. The RBI governor is trying very hard to clean up the banking system but the crooks are very well protected. Finally, technology maybe lowering barriers to some businesses but the use of technology is limited only to those with the skills, which means millions of unskilled could become redundant. A daunting challenge for the government when 80% of graduate engineers are unfit for employment. Since we do not export bananas we cannot be called a banana republic but on our Republic Day we pray for a strong wealthy nation. May our enemies wither.

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