Every silver lining has a dark cloud behind it.

Brazil, Russia, China and India were lumped together into BRIC in 2001, before South Africa joined in 2010 to make it BRICS. Now some think that India should distance itself from this group. We know that China's economy is slowing down, although why a growth rate of 7% is considered slow is a mystery. Xi Jinping has decided that the rate of growth should not fall below 6.5% through 2020 so the government will try and stimulate the economy. The stock market fell steeply last week and is falling again this morning. Russia is in recession due to sanctions and there is little prospect of improvement in the near future. Russia is heavily dependent on oil exports and the price of crude is unlikely to rise any time soon. If the conflict in the middle east becomes worse the price of crude may increase but if the price goes up shale oil production will become profitable once more, so supplies will increase. If sanctions on Iran are lifted more oil will come to the market and the price will stay down. Saudi Arabia, not a member of BRICS, is having to restructure its economy by reducing expenditure and generous subsidies for its people. The South African economy is in such deep trouble that comparisons are being made with neighboring Zimbabwe. President Jacob Zuma has changed Finance Minister 3 times in recent weeks. Brazil's economy is in crisis. The Supreme Court has impeded opposition attempts to impeach President Dilma Rousseff for now. Its economy is shrinking, inflation is in double digits, the trade gap is dangerously high and its debt has junk rating. So what of India, the 'i' in BRICS? The Congress multiplied entitlement programs to win votes, leading to double digit inflation, high fiscal and current account deficits and a steep fall in growth rates. The fall in the price of oil has been a boon for the economy but the steel industry is suffering from a double whammy of falling iron ore prices and a weaker Chinese currency, making Chinese steel cheaper to import. However, retail inflation is still relatively high at 5.41% , so the RBI cannot lower the price of rupee by much because it will make imports more expensive and worsen inflation. " As 2016 begins there are clear signs of of serious debt/default squalls on the horizon," writes Carmen Reinhart. " From a historical perspective, the emerging economies are headed toward a major crisis." God help us.