Monday, September 28, 2015

'Steady as she goes' could be the most important reform.

Prime Minister Modi has been touring the world looking for investment into India to create jobs for about 800 million people below the age of 35 years. He has spent the last few days at Silicon Valley wooing the titans of the tech industry and also those of Indian origin, who are thriving in that atmosphere of innovation. All these years successive Indian governments have been happy to receive precious foreign exchange sent home by Indians living abroad while trying to stop the so called 'brain drain'. Why does India receive more remittances from abroad than China does? Because, rising wealth in China means that the Chinese living abroad do not have to support their poor relatives living back at home but use their money for inward investment instead. For the first time a Prime Minister has acknowledged the contribution of Indians in the tech industry and has said that 'brain drain' is actually 'brain gain'. Studies show that diaspora is a goldmine, not only because of remittances sent home, but because they increase trade with their home countries, bring their knowledge back home and can influence policies of the country of their domicile. Today,there are more yoga classes in the US than in India and more Americans practice yoga than Indians do, despite our population being 3 times that of the US. All this is very good but what foreigners, including those of Indian origin, will look for is long term stability in business climate. Modi has promised faster decision making to US CEOs but that is of no use if laws are changed arbitrarily, if civil servants interpret laws according to their own whim or if our courts take decades to decide a dispute. The dispute regarding the Minimum Alternate Tax on foreign investment is an example of an arbitrary tax demand followed by a humiliating withdrawal. Over Rs 4 trillion in taxes are stuck in tax disputes with the government which means that the government is losing out on precious revenues while businesses are unable to plan future investments until they know their liability. People will try to evade taxes unless they get returns for what they pay. We recognise that to win elections Modi has to pander to the poor but subsidies do not reduce poverty, productivity does. Finally, highhanded decisions by politicians are reflected in the recent ban on eating meat and the instruction to arrest people for sedition if they criticise the BJP government, in Maharashtra. These are unnecessary irritants which waste time in fruitless arguments and may lead to communal tension, as has happened in Ranchi. To have a 'digital India' we need a highly educated workforce but online companies create few jobs so we may end up with lots of educated unemployed. Although necessary education does not increase growth. Modi has to succeed but the opposition will do everything to make sure he does not. We, the people, must stop the spoilers.

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