Monday, September 14, 2015

Isn't it important to have economic secularism?

Doctors often moan about how every person, even the most ignorant, considers himself to be an expert on medicine, often with half-baked knowledge from the internet. At least such people are restrained by strict laws on prescribing and operating, even if enforcement of laws is very weak in India. There are no such restraints in economics. National economies are controlled by politicians whose only interest is in grabbing and hanging on to power. That has just been illustrated in Australia where Prime Minister Tony Abbott, of the Liberal Party, has been unseated by his party colleague and one time friend, Malcolm Turnbull. He will be the fourth prime minister in over 2 years. During the previous Labor government Kevin Rudd unseated Julia Gillard and then went on to lose the elections. He resigned from parliament following his defeat and was appointed Senior Fellow at Harvard University. In India no politician will dream of resigning. Whereas politicians in the west are highly educated and can go on to lucrative careers outside of politics Indian politicians have no such avenues. Their wealth comes from corruption, which can only be protected by the power of office so they will debase themselves to any extent to be noticed by their party leaders. The Congress, which has ruled us for 56 years out of 67 years since independence, is desperately hanging on to the Gandhi family. In its last 10 years of power the Congress brought the country to near bankruptcy and was soundly thrashed in last year's elections. Now it will not allow the parliament to function so that vital economic bills, such as GST, Amendment to the Land Acquisition Act and changes to labor laws, cannot be passed. China's politicians have no such restrictions. The President is in office for 10 years and has absolute powers, so he should be able to institute reforms as he pleases. Trouble is that reforms may cause the growth rate to fall, leading to a rise in unemployment which may cause protests against the Party, and that is a terrifying thought. Although the economy is still growing the effect of weak global demand and rising wages in China is causing factories to close. The government wants to move away from investment led growth to one of domestic consumption but was unnerved by the fall in stock prices and the flight of money overseas as the yuan fell. It stopped sale of stocks of certain companies, lowered interest rate, devalued the currency and has now started currency controls, prompting some to predict a debt deflationary collapse of the economy. The reason why people in the west save so little is because they have a social security safety net for everybody. Perhaps instead of wasting money on useless infrastructure projects the Chinese government could start large central insurance schemes to offer healthcare, pensions, unemployment and poverty benefits instead of the fragmented system they have now. China and India are secular for religion, they have to be secular for the economy too.

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