Thursday, September 24, 2015

High stakes poker: who holds the aces?

What is going to be the end game in the middle east? One thing is certain that the west, led by the US, will lose out. Which will leave 2 blocks, with huge arsenals of modern weapons, facing each other: a Shia block comprised of Iran, Iraq, and Syria, supported by the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Sunni opportunists, such as Hamas in Gaza and possibly the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and a Sunni block of Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, supported by Israel. The jokers in the pack are Pakistan, a nuclear weapon state with a long border with Iran, and Turkey, a member of NATO, with a dictatorial thug, Erdogan as president. After military defeats in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq the US has lost to Iran in diplomacy. Obama knows that his healthcare act will be overturned if a Republican becomes president next year, no one is sure which way the economy will go and his troop withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan were just as thoughtless and stupid as Bush's attacks in the first place. Frantic for a legacy, he has surrendered to Iran on almost every point. While running away from Iraq and Afghanistan, where US soldiers had died, he allowed Cameron and Sarkozy to bully him into attacking Libya, and engineered an armed coup in Ukraine. Libya is a mess, with militias fighting each other, while a new book reveals Cameron to be a rich 'tosser' who drank champagne at the age of 11 and played with a dead pig's mouth while at Oxford. Now that Europe is in a crisis, fighting each other over the influx of migrants, Russia has calmly exerted its control over the eastern part of Ukraine. The European Union is becoming a disunion with countries putting up fences to stop migrants from entering. With winter coming it is going to become more messy as pictures of babies freezing in the snow are shown on televisions across the world. Meanwhile Russia has transferred fighter jets and soldiers to Latakia, in western Syria. Russia has a naval base in Tartus on the Mediterranean. With its infantile mindset of cowboys and injuns the US has labeled Bashar al Assad of Syria as a baddy, just as they did with Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, with disastrous results. So they have divided terrorists into good and bad terrorists and daintily bomb only ISIS positions while supplying arms to others. Russia's aim is clear. It wants the Assad regime to win and knows that an end of war in Syria will be secretly welcome in Europe even if politicians say otherwise. Russians, Syrians and Iranians are meeting in Baghdad, which was supposed to be a stronghold of the US. As the middle east blows the global economy will suffer. India could profit if we can maintain peace. 

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