Thursday, April 03, 2014

Are ordinary Indians masters in economics?

Some experts believe that this Congress led government is following a scorched earth policy on the economy so that the new government that comes in on 16 May will be unable to function. The Land Acquisition Act will make any project impossibly expensive while the Seventh Pay Commission will massively increase expenditure. The people do not seem to agree with this view. A survey by Pew Research Center of over 2400 people conducted over December and January showed that 57% think that the economy is good. However, 90% think that rising prices are " a very big problem " and 85% are worried by the lack of jobs but 80% approve of the welfare schemes, including the MGNREGA scheme, which have been blamed for rising deficit and inflation. People are angry with endemic corruption, support women's rights and 63% think that India does not get respect internationally. An article by 2 economics professors would seem to support the survey. They compare the average annual economic indicators for this Congress led government over the 10 years it has been in power with the 6 years of the previous BJP led government. Real GDP grew by an average of 5.9% per year under the BJP and 7.6% per year under Congress. The Sensex grew by 5.9% per year under BJP and 14.5% under Congress. Foreign Direct Investment was $2.9 billion per year under the BJP and $20.2 billion under Congress. Average Fiscal Deficit was 5.5% under the BJP and 4.6% under Congress. However, average general inflation was 5.45% and food inflation just 4.2% under the BJP while under the Congress they were 8.1% and 9% respectively. The 2 professors do not comment on the view that the high growth rate was achieved by a frenzy of debt based on very low interest rates, by a huge fiscal stimulus provided by the MGNREGA at Rs 2.5 trillion, farmers loan waiver at Rs 700 billion and the Sixth Pay Commission which increased civil service pay by over 25% and the strong rupee which kept import costs low. Non-Performing Assets at banks have risen to Rs 2.8 trillion in the last 5 years. This is excluding the amount restructured under the Corporate Debt Restructuring mechanism. Car sales have fallen for 2 years in a row showing how purchasing power of people has been eroded by the inflation. Under Congress subsidies increased from 1.4% of GDP to 2.3%. Convinced of the winning power of subsidies the Congress manifesto promises more handouts to win the coming elections. Will the people agree?

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