Friday, July 19, 2013

Improvement is impossible without the truth.

Our most revered Prime Minister said today," Our economy has had a bad year but things will improve soon." Not true. The economy has been showing signs of sickness for years but you seemed to be blind to it. The Current Account was in surplus in 2002, 03 and 04 but has been in ever increasing deficit ever since you sneaked into the PM's chair without being elected by the people. It was -0.3% in 05, -1.2% in 06, -1% in 07, -1.3% in 08, -2.3% in 09, -2.8% in 10, -2.7% in 11, -4.2% in 12 and -4.5% in 13. " We will leave no stone unturned to ensure that the economy rebounds. I appeal to each one of you not to be overcome by negative sentiment," the Prime Minister said. Why do you dish out bromides? You were built up as a World Famous Economist by the freeloading press. So give us facts and figures, graphs and charts. Talk about import and exports, about currency fluctuations, how you see the US, Europe, Japan, China and the emerging markets performing in the medium to long term and what policies you are taking to secure the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. But you cannot? Is it because you have forgotten economics, having spent your life as a file shifting bureaucrat? Or is it because you were made prime minister precisely because you were seen as weak and without principles, someone who will obey any order to waste precious taxpayer money however disastrous for the economy. We do not expect a foreigner to care for India but in your 9 years as Prime Minister you have done more damage to this country than Pakistan. The fiscal deficit was 6% in 2009, 6.5% in 10, 4.9% in 11, 5.9% in 12 and 5.2% in 13. Yet you have allowed more wasteful social programs such as the Backward Regions Grant costing Rs 750 billion and passed the Food Security Bill through ordinance, adding another Rs 2.5 trillion to government expense. The Consumer Price Index has been consistently above 8% since 2009 and yet your government forced the RBI to reduce interest rates. You should have increased rates to above the rate of inflation to bring it down as Mr Narasimha Rao did in the 90s, but then he had courage and was a patriot. Instead you allowed the last Finance Minister, who, like you, has never been elected, to increase taxes on everything adding to inflation and choking consumer demand. The result is that the rupee has collapsed adding to inflation, sales are falling as demand falls and growth is set to keep falling. Have you heard of stagflation? In panic your government is sending fellows to the US to beg for investment. Shameful. Tell the truth, please. Only then can the recovery begin. 

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