Tuesday, July 30, 2013

It's every one for himself.

Exports dropped by 1.4% in the April to June quarter while non-oil imports rose by 5.8% generating a trade deficit of $50.2 billion. Exports declined 4.6% in June. The suspicion is that exporters and importers are fudging their figures. ET, 29 July. Exporters report lower earnings so that they will be required to bring back lesser foreign exchange into India. The balance is deposited in accounts abroad. That is because they are afraid that the rupee will depreciate more against the dollar and they will get more rupees if they delay repatriation. Importers, on the other hand, claim to have spent more than they have because that allows them to keep foreign exchange outside the country because if the rupee falls they will have to pay much more for the same goods. Global Financial Integrity has calculated that India is among the top ten nations in terms of illicit outflow of money, with an estimated $123 billion flowing out in 10 years to 2010. The government naturally portrays these people as immoral without explaining why people are resorting to such behavior? The reason is that the economy is at the point of collapse because of the corrosive social spending by the Congress to win elections. That has generated double-digit inflation, soaring deficits, falling rupee and declining growth rate. Undeterred, the Congress passed the Food Security Bill through an ordinance which will add another Rs 2.5 trillion to spending without decreasing malnutrition. A World Bank report says," Poorly designed food subsidies that lack transparency, accountability, and promotion of healthy foods most likely will fail to sustain positive effects either on nutrition, inequality or growth, and instead could take resources away from more productive uses and threaten macroeconomic stability." In other words, money should be spent productively, such as on infrastructure, which will improve business and create jobs instead of wasting on bribery to get votes which will cause economic meltdown. Trouble is that Indian politicians have absolutely no sharam or izzat so they keep lying. Our most revered Finance Minister said defiantly that India still has the second highest growth rate at 5%. Not true. Growth at 5% with inflation at 10% is contraction of 5%. The government is the enemy. To survive it is every man for himself. No one for India.

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