Thursday, July 04, 2013

A jackal cannot give milk.

Our most revered Finance Minister has asked public sector banks to cut interest rates to " stimulate the economy " by making borrowing easier for companies to invest in new projects thereby stimulating growth and increasing employment. Is it going to work? No. Companies will not invest if there is no demand and reducing interest rates has to be accompanied by lower deposit rates which will force people to buy gold to insure against inflation and the falling rupee thereby increasing the Current Account Deficit even higher. The employment rate has fallen from 42% in 2004-05, when the Congress grabbed power, to 39.2% in 2009-10 to 38.6% in 2011-12. From 2004 to 2010 only 2.7 million new jobs were created as opposed to 60 million new jobs in the previous 5 years when the Congress was not in power. Labor force participation rate dropped from 40% in 2009-10 to 39.5% in 2011-12 suggesting that people were being forced to study longer or drop out of the job market because of lack of opportunities. ET, 21 June. Manpower surveyed 42 countries around the world in which 17, including Spain, Greece and the US, had stronger hiring intentions in the July-September quarter. We have to remember that Spain and Greece are suffering severe austerity programs imposed by the EU and the IMF and yet hope to create more jobs. In 4 countries hiring intentions were unchanged while in 21 countries, including France, China and India, hiring intentions were weaker. China is an illusion because it is still growing at over 7% which is less than its previous growth rate of over 10% and so its hiring intentions will be less than before. India and France are similar in imposing tax and spend socialism which has failed repeatedly, most spectacularly in the disintegration of the Soviet Union. But we are being told by eminent economists, such as Paul Krugman, that governments should increase spending  in a time of falling growth, even by borrowing more, because increasing growth leads to increased tax collections thereby reducing debt. So why is our growth tanking while fiscal deficit and CAD are soaring. Because the Congress has been wasting precious taxpayer money on social schemes to buy votes instead of on infrastructure which would have created more jobs. An affidavit filed in the Supreme Court by the government on 1 July says that 47,795 kms of national highways were built in 32 years between 1980 and 2012 of which nearly 50% or 23,814 kms were built in 5 years between 1997 and 2002 when the Congress was not in power. In 10 years the Congress has added just 16,000 kms. TOI, 3 July. This Finance Minister is responsible for the loot and bribe policy. How can he be the remedy? Can a jackal give milk?

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