Friday, June 08, 2012

Trying to hit a sixer.

Possibly inspired by Sachin Tendulkar's induction into the Rajya Sabha our most revered Prime Minister wants to hit the economy for a sixer. He has announced a 6 point plan which will improve the decrepit infrastructure and stimulate the economy at the same time. 1. Ports. 42 projects including 2 new ports for Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal are to be taken up in 2012-13. We, the people, are not sure what the term " taken up " means in government lingo but if it means building and upgrading then it will cost vast sums of money. Where is the money going to come from? 2. Roads. About 9500 km of roads and highway projects will be awarded in 2012-13. Already companies are trying to get out of projects they bid for because of bogus figures about expected earnings from toll collection and banks are refusing to lend money for road construction. With petrol price being increased by Rs 7.50 recently people will hesitate to drive. Sales of diesel vehicles are rising which means less tax collections from fuel and extra taxes on such vehicles will hit sales of cars reducing jobs. 3. Power. Plans to add 18,000 MW including 2000 MW from Kudankulam Atomic Power to generating capacity. You may succeed in starting up Kudankulam by the Gestapo tactics adopted by your government in beating up and registering false cases against protesters but where will you find fuel for thermal power plants when Coal India Ltd is already unable to supply coal to existing plants? 4. Civil Aviation. Work will begin on 3 new airports in Navi Mumbai, Goa and Kannur and international airports in Lucknow, Coimbatore and Gaya. Again the question about financing these projects. Since the announcement of retrospective taxation in this year's budget FDI is drying up. Fraport AG, the world's second biggest airport operator, wants to sell its 10% stake in Delhi airport. " We had some re-assessment.... ( and realised ) that this government doesn't have any spine or drive. So I personally doubt that anything will happen in the lifetime of UPA II," said Fraport India MD, Ansgar Sickert. Recent 346% increase in airport taxes have made Delhi the most expensive airport in the world. This is expected to reduce passenger travel between 7-10.5%. On average an Indian flies once every 10 years while Americans fly 1.8 times per year. 5. Railways. Dedicated corridor project to be commissioned in December 2013, 2 years ahead of schedule. Railways are in the control of Trinamul Congress which means Mamata Banerjee. It is easier to predict the monsoon than to predict what she will do. 6. Coal. Coal India Ltd. will dispatch 470 million of coal to all sectors, a hike of 8.8%. By magic? This is what Moody's Analytics had to say. " The single biggest factor weighing on the outlook is the Indian government. In all economies it is impossible to separate the economic from the political outlook and that is particularly the case in India." We all know that these are merely pious hopes and will do nothing to improve the economy. The only way is to drastically reduce spending, bring down inflation and cut taxes. It is impossible to reduce spending without reducing social programs which means fewer votes. Uncontrolled inflation hits the poor hardest also meaning fewer votes. Wonder what the Capo has to say.

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