Friday, June 15, 2012

Nobody gives up power.

Last year when Hosni Mubarak of Egypt resigned as President there was great rejoicing and western journalists were waxing lyrical of how people power can bring democracy and how Egypt would become a shining beacon of freedom in the middle east. They were hoping that Egypt would be like Turkey where secularism is enshrined in the constitution. At that time we thought that there was greater possibility of Egypt turning out like Pakistan where the army runs the country behind a weak civilian government and Islamic fanatics gradually grow in power until a low level civil war continues for years. A new parliament was elected in Egypt in January 2012 where the majority of seats went to the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and the hardline Salafists. According to the new rules one third of seats of the 508 member house were reserved for individual candidates who would be outside party lists. The Muslim Brotherhood won 100 of the 235 seats with its members standing as individual candidates. During the revolution the Brotherhood had promised not to run for president but promptly broke their word by putting up Mr Mohamed Morsi as candidate. The parliament also passed a law which banned any former official of the Mubarak regime from contesting the presidential elections. That meant that Mr Ahmed Shafik, a former air force general and the last prime minister under Mubarak, would be ineligible to run. Now the Supreme Constitutional Court, established by Mubarak some 3 decades ago, has ruled that Mr Shafik is eligible to stand as candidate for president and the election of all the individual candidates are cancelled, thus effectively dissolving parliament. Those candidates are banned from standing again. The Muslim Brotherhood is naturally incensed because their power will be decreased while other MPs are delighted because they did not want the Brotherhood to hijack the revolution which was spontaneous and essentially secular. The people are confused, not knowing whether to be angry at this fiendishly clever soft coup by the army or to be pleased that the Brotherhood has not grabbed all the benefits of the revolution which was independent of them. The presidential election is on Sunday between Mr Shafik and Mr Morsi. If Mr Shafik wins he will become president without any parliament to challenge him and will be a dictator elected by the will of the people. A really clever move by the army who get to keep all their powers and privileges. It will take time to write a new constitution and elect another parliament which will give General Tantawi, Chairman of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, time to weaken the Muslim Brotherhood. Why blame army fellows, no one likes to give up power. India, which likes to show off as the largest democracy, is really a police state controlled by political gangs ruled by families which pass power down from one generation to the next as some family heirloom. We desperately need citizens corporations.

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