Who is bluffing?

On 21 June a Syrian MIG fighter jet made an emergency landing at King Hussein air base in Jordan and the pilot, Colonel Hassan Merhi al-Hamade asked for asylum which was quickly granted by the Jordanian government. Syria said that it was on a training flight and branded al-Hamade a traitor which he is, just like Bradley Manning. On 22 June a Turkish F4 Phantom was shot down in the Mediterranean by Syrian air defense off the coast of Syria. Syria said that the plane was flying low and fast from the direction of northern Cyprus and was shot when just 1 km from the coast. The plane burst into flames and crashed into the sea 10 kms from the village of Omal-Tuyour in Latakia province. Turkish President Abdullah Gul said," These are not ill-intentioned things but happen beyond control due to the jet's speed." How was it possible for the pilots to come so far inside Syrian air space by mistake and why did the pilots ignore the warning that radar had locked onto it? Are Turkish pilots so poorly trained? Turkey is a member of NATO so the pilots should have been well trained. Recently Russia is said to have supplied new surface to air missiles to Syria so was this an attempt to check out their efficacy in case NATO decides to enforce a no fly zone over Syria like it did on Iraq and, recently, on Libya? Just after midnight on 6 September, 2007 Israeli jets bombed a suspected nuclear installation in the Deir ez-Zor region of Syria in, what was known as, Operation Orchard. Syria will not have forgotten that insult. We can only speculate but incidents such as this can easily lead to all out war. Meanwhile in Egypt another game of poker is going on between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood. Result of the presidential election held a week ago has not been declared because of allegations of cheating by both sides. However, the Brotherhood has declared that its candidate, Mohamed Morsi has won and has been holding demonstrations in Tahrir Square. Is this a bluff to intimidate the army into declaring Morsi a winner even if he has fewer votes than his opponent, Ahmed Shafik or is it a warning to the army to stop it from overturning a legitimate victory for Morsi? Rumors are that Shafik has won by getting 50.7% of votes cast, an extremely narrow victory. So, does the wafer thin margin of victory indicate a genuine result or is the army being extra cunning so as to avoid the charge of vote rigging? But if Shafik does win the Brotherhood may resort to violent protest which will give the army the excuse it needs to crack down on it. The 1 Coptic Christians, who are 10% of the population, will support the army as they fear an Islamic state and it will depend on the youth, who really started the protests against Mubarak, how much bloodshed there will be. Blood will be shed, the question is how much.