Wednesday, June 27, 2012

India is Europe.

India is now in the proud position of being economically equal to Greece, Spain and Ireland. Greece was running a huge budget deficit, had an enormous bureaucracy with guaranteed benefits and most people do not pay tax. Last year India had a deficit of Rs 5.2 trillion which was 68% of government revenue of Rs 7.7 trillion. Including public sector companies and the Railways the government has 34.1 million employees whose salaries were increased by 80% in 2008, who get 75% of salary as Dearness Allowance, have good pensions, incredible opportunities for theft and bribes and such secure jobs that they are rarely sacked even when caught red handed. The RBI announced on 6 June that government bank employees earn 150% of private sector banks. " This is despite the fact that pension expenses of PSU banks are not fully reflected in their expenses," the RBI said. Spain and Ireland had huge property price bubbles which have left banks with such debts that they had to be rescued by the EU. Property prices in India increased by 1000% between 2002 and 2012. The market has not crashed because 50-60% of the cost of any property is paid with black money so people will starve themselves to avoid foreclosure. This black money and uncontrolled spending caused inflation to zoom, Consumer Price Index in May was 10.36%, and the rupee to fall by 30% which, in turn, further stoked inflation. The RBI raised rates 13 times without success. When yields on government bonds reached 7% Ireland capitulated and asked for help from the EU. Yields on Spanish debt is 6.8% which, the government says, is unsustainable. Yields on Indian government securities is in excess of 8%. So desperate is the government that the RBI has just allowed foreign investors to buy $20 billion in Gsecs, up from $10 billion. With a dollar buying Rs 57 today foreigners can invest in Gsecs, get 8% interest and convert back to dollars anytime the rupee strengthens for mouth watering profits. The hope is that if the rupee strengthens imports, such as oil, will become cheaper reducing inflation allowing the RBI to reduce interest rates. However, low interest rates only help those who have the means to borrow, which means the rich, and helps the rich to get richer while the poor have no collateral so remain where they are. To keep the poor in their place the micro finance industry has been decimated. While the government is helping foreigners to get rich it has decided to levy 12.36% service tax on remittances sent by Non Resident Indians. Since a lot of money comes from laborers working in inhuman conditions in Gulf countries it will hit them hard while the rich will send money by hawala thus increasing black money. Our most revered Finance Minster has been kicked upstairs to become President so that he can roam the world with family at taxpayer expense like the present one did. The World Famous Economist is in charge. Time to pray.

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