Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Why be scared about drones?

Pakistani authorities are fuming over recent statements by US Defense Secretary, Leon Panetta who said that the US had no intention of stopping drone attacks in Pakistan and was running out of patience with it for not doing enough to take out Taliban fighters in North Waziristan. If drone attacks are an invasion of Pakistani sovereignty why does it not take out the drones? The older MQ1 Predator and MQ9 Reaper are propeller driven and can fly at only 100 mph whereas Pakistani air force boasts of the Dassault Mirage 5 which cruises at 600 mph and can reach 1500 mph. The newer RQ-170 Sentinels are more difficult to detect by radar and can fly at just under the speed of sound. Still no match for a Mirage. Before the Bin Laden raid Sentinels flew between seams of radar to escape detection. Nuclear scientist AQ Khan has said that Hamza missiles can easily take out drones. Serbian air defenses destroyed 15 drones during NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999. There were rumors of shooting down a drone with a machine gun from the open door of a helicopter. In 2002 a Predator drone armed with Stinger missiles took on an Iraqi MIG fighter and was quickly destroyed. On 4 December, 2011 Iran brought down a Sentinel near the city of Kashmar in north eastern Iran. The US claimed that it was shot down but the Iranians showed it on TV relatively undamaged and claimed that they were able to override its GPS system. Apparently that is its greatest weak point and a stronger signal can reset its coordinates and make it land to order. On 9 May, 2012 a US drone crashed in Pakistan, near the Afghan border. The US says that it malfunctioned but the Taliban are claiming that they shot it down. So why is Pakistan not taking them out? One reason maybe that the US will see it as an act of war and cut off all aid, without which Pakistani economy will crash. After all, the US is the largest contributor to the IMF. The main reason is that the Pakistanis are using US drones for there own purpose. Drones can recognise buildings but cannot know where individuals are hiding. This information is being supplied by ISI spotters. Last week the Al Qaeda second in command, Abu Yahya al-Libi was killed in a drone attack. In 2009 Baitullah Mehsood was killed possibly because he was involved in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Thus the ISI is taking out people who it wants but leaving behind those it considers its assets. Al Qaeda leaders, especially foreigners, are considered expendable but Taliban leaders, such as Mullah Omar, are protected because the ISI considers the Taliban as " strategic asset " to take over control of Afghanistan when US forces leave in 2014. Meanwhile the Pakistani government feigns great anger and protests formally to the US against this invasion of sovereignty thus inciting its population to greater hatred of the US. This is what is frustrating the US and hence the warning from Panetta. Maybe, Pakistanis are trying to be too cute and soon the west will lose patience and cut off all aid but for the moment they are in the driving seat. In biology drones are impotent male bees. Human drones are not much better are they?

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