Monday, February 06, 2012

So, who is afraid of Iran?

Why is the US so obsessed with Iran developing nuclear weapons when it allowed Pakistan to develop them with the help of China at a time when China was not so powerful? Pakistan is a failed state which has little control over its regions like Baluchistan and Waziristan. It is an economic basket case surviving on handouts from the US and the IMF. The civilian government has no control over its army which actively supports and trains terrorists and is itself infiltrated by fundamentalists as the attack on the naval base last year proved. Iran, on the other hand, is relatively stable. Ayatollah Khamenei has full control over government institutions including its army and there are no armed groups, like the Taliban, to worry about. Its economy would be in much better shape were it not for the sanctions. Iran is almost the same distance from the US as is Pakistan so if the US is comfortable with a rogue state like Pakistan possessing nukes why talk about attacking Iran? Even Israel is in no real danger. Iran can never use nuclear weapons against Israel for fear of being wiped off the map. Iran has never fought a war with Israel except through proxies such as the Hezbollah and Hamas. The reason is that there are other countries between the two. Even with the confidence of nuclear weapons, therefore, Iran cannot attack Israel with conventional weapons without going through Iraq and Jordan or Saudi Arabia. Which is really fanciful. So why the increasingly belligerent rhetoric from Tel Aviv? The only people who will never tolerate a nuclear Iran are the Arabs led by Saudi Arabia. A Shia Persia armed with nukes just across the Gulf from Sunni Arabs is unacceptable under any circumstance. The Saudi King is supposed to have wanted to cut of the head of the " snake ". The Arab Council is also pushing for the removal of Al Assad and his Alawite, who are Shia, regime from Syria. The fall of Assad will desperately weaken Iran which will not only lose its ally but will be unable to supply the Hezbollah in Lebanon. Trouble is that ordinary Arabs will not support any attack on Muslim Iran when Israel is widely believed to possess over 200 nukes. So is there a back channel understanding between the Arabs and Israel which is urging Israel to say the things that the Arabs leaders want to say but cannot? This makes war a much greater possibility than we think. Perhaps the only inhibition is the US presidential election in November. After that oil at $ 200 a barrel? Trouble is I am allergic to horses.

No comments: