Friday, February 03, 2012

How many to start a war?

The second World War was because of a collection of men, willing to murder in millions, at the same time in history. There were Hitler, Mussolini, Churchill and Stalin, each man trying to outdo the others in a competition of slaughter. Just recovering from the Great Depression the US was a reluctant late entry because of Pearl Harbor. Thankfully, today we do not seem to have such a collection. Perhaps, there are a few but not with enough support to start anything big. We had Bush and Blair but Chirac refused to be bullied for which France was vilified in the US. Obama does not have an appetite for open warfare in which US troops will die, relying instead on diplomacy and drone attacks on selected targets. China has become immensely wealthy and has been spending enormous amounts on defence. China could use its wealth to help its neighbors economically and reserve its military strength purely for self defence, not that there is any danger of attack from any Asian country. Instead China has become arrogant, aggressively bullying its neighbors who are now turning to the US for comfort. Later this year the present leadership in China will stand down. Whether the men who replace them will be as offensive remains to be seen. David Cameron of Britain is itching to become Margaret Thatcher. He sneaked into 10, Downing Street with LibDem support because he lacks a majority in the House Of Commons. The Tories have 306 seats while Labour has 258 and the LibDems 57. The Tories got 36.1% of votes with a turnout of 65.1% which is about 20% of the electorate, not large enough to start a war. Anyway, with the economy in recession Britain is having to reduce defence expenditure. Bombing Libya and killing Gaddafi was too little and Cameron would definitely love more. Ayatollah Khamenei of Iran keeps raising the ante, probably believing that Allah will make him invincible. Strangely, Ahmadinejad is now seen as a moderate. Netanyahu of Israel will probably not want to start anything until he knows who is coming to the White House but is under extreme pressure from extremists. France and Germany will also have elections, with France most likely to have a new President. So will we get another combination of mass murderers to start a Third World War? We do not know, but 2012 could surpass any war in history with the amount of blood that will flow. We can only wait and watch.

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