Reasons for optimism.

So, 2011 is dead and we are already into 2012. In spite of pious hopes for happiness and prosperity the future looks extremely gloomy. Europe is certain to plunge into recession and there is a real chance that the Euro will break up. That will cause absolute chaos in financial markets. In India fiscal deficit and current account deficit are rising fast, non-food inflation remains uncontrolled and the rupee is plunging which will raise cost of commodities feeding into inflation. Already a Rs 2 increase in the price of petrol has been announced. So is there any cause for optimism. If the worst happens and the Euro breaks up the resulting financial meltdown will lead to protectionism as each country tightens control on trade. This will reign in the robber barons who have been moving money around the world, cutting jobs and awarding themselves ever increasing bonuses. Politicians, however craven, will be forced to tighten rules on how markets operate and punish financial scam artists. Prices of commodities and properties will fall bringing some respite to the poor. If growth in China falls precipitously there may be social unrest leading, hopefully, to civil war. In Shandong province in eastern China 24 people died from Viral Hemorrhagic Fever transmitted from rats. Fan Tiangli, an Infectious Diseases doctor, said that cases were from rural areas where people were in direct contact with rats or had food contaminated by rats. Or maybe they were eating rat salad. A 38 year old driver in Guangdong province died of bird flu. He did not have any contact with poultry and did not travel abroad so how he got H5N1 is not known. Previously the virus was thought to have infected civets before jumping to humans in China. Chinese habit of eating anything, however revolting, may lead to an even more lethal epidemic. Anything bad for China is good for India. In Pakistan the army is finding it difficult to maintain its absolute control. As the army weakens Islamists will become stronger. These fanatics have been trying to acquire a nuclear device for sometime and may feel bold enough to attack a nuclear silo leading to civil war. Relations with the US are declining and if a nuclear device is lost it may lead to open war with the US. Fall in commodity and property prices and war inside our enemies, now that is cause for optimism. Let us hope.