Oil gambit accepted.

The most expensive food in the middle east is the " Kabsa ". An entire sheep is wrapped in some type of leaves, buried under sand and a fire lit over it. The sheep slowly cooks unseen in its own fat over 10-12 hours. Only very special cooks know when it is done and charges are very heavy. The politics of the middle east is also cooking slowly, largely ignored by most people in the world. Medecin Sans Frontieres has suspended its work in Misrata in Libya because doctors were being asked to treat victims of torture, presumed Gaddafi supporters, who were then sent back to prison to be tortured again. The middle east thrives on hatred and vengeance and grudges are nursed over generations. Gaddafi supporters are beginning to regroup and there is every possibility of a long drawn out civil war dividing the country. In Syria, the opposition has been joined by deserters from the army and are fighting back. The ruling Alawites are a minority and are afraid of being wiped out if they lose but the longer it goes on the more will be the reasons for revenge as in Libya. The Alawites, being Shia, are supported by Iran, which is Persian and Shia, and hated by all Arabs, majority or whom are Sunnis. If Assad of Syria falls Iran will be unable to supply arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon and so will be unable to continue its proxy fight against Israel. The US has been increasing sanctions on Iran to get it to stop its nuclear program which Iran says is for producing electricity but is clearly aimed at producing nuclear weapons. Iran correctly sees nuclear weapons as a ticket to international power and respect but this alarms Israel and especially the Arabs who will not tolerate Persian dominance. Despite being an oil exporter Iran does not have enough refining capacity and has to import refined products. This makes its economy vulnerable to external pressure. Some European countries have decided to stop importing Iranian oil from July. In retaliation Iran has announced that it will stop exporting oil to some countries straight away. The biggest problem is that the government of Iran is made up of religious leaders who naturally feel they have divine protection against all enemies and victory will ultimately be theirs. If the regime feels really under threat it may threaten shipping in the gulf. A few mines in the water and threats might be enough to deter shipping companies because any injury to a tanker will the mother of all environmental disasters. Oil prices will shoot up. This being election year in the US its response is hard to predict. Will Obama have to attack Iran to prevent Republicans calling him a pussy? The Kabsa is cooking nicely.