The plot thickens.

An Iranian scientist on his way to work was killed by a magnetic bomb attached to the top of his car by a motorcyclist who then escaped. The Iranian currency, the Rial has fallen over 10% in the last one week because of US sanctions on the central bank of Iran. Already over 20% inflation is likely to go higher with the fall in the currency. Japan is thinking of reducing oil imports from Iran and the EU may follow. That is probably why it was so important to finish the war in Libya quickly so that it could resume its oil exports to fill up the gap so that international prices remain steady and cause no economic panic. The Assad regime in Syria, which is Alawite, is under serious pressure and its fall will usher in a Sunni government which would be extremely hostile to Iran. This would cut off supplies of weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas weakening them. So is a regime change in Iran imminent? Iran is backing Assad to tough it out in face of mounting protests. In 2009 protests in Iran were subdued by the sheer brutality of the regime's response and Iran is hoping that the same will happen in Syria. However, Iranians are almost all Shia whereas Sunnnis form an overwhelming majority in Syria and the hatred is such that they may be willing to sacrifice any number of lives to victory. So far so bad. But Iran has another ally next door. Iraq's Prime Minister, Al Maliki, a Shia has been consolidating power. He had an arrest warrant issued for Tareq Al Hashemi, the Vice President who had to flee north to a sanctuary in the Kurdish territory with the help of the President Talabani, who is a Kurd. Shias are 60% of the population, mostly living in the south. Iran could sell oil through its friends in Iraq. If things get really tough Iran could mount raids into Saudi Arabia which shares a very long border with the south of Iraq. Although the oil region of Dhahran is much further to the south Iran could still cause enormous confusion by sending in small raiding parties without actually declaring war. During its war with Iraq Iran almost won by the sheer fanaticism of its soldiers who were ready to embrace martyrdom with pleasure. Such ferocity is almost impossible to defend against. Would the US attack Iran to defend Saudi Arabia? Would we see a coalition of Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US fighting Iran? How would other Muslim countries like Pakistan respond? Meanwhile is there going to be another coup in Pakistan? What a fantastic thriller! Let it role.