Monday, June 28, 2010

I do not get it. We are constantly told that India's growth rate is 8.5% for this year but inflation is 10.5% which, to me, means that our real growth rate is -2%. That however is not the whole story. Flats in Delhi which were selling for Rs. 3.4 million in 2001 are now selling for Rs. 21 million, an appreciation of over 600% in 10 years. Against this background the government has raised petrol price by 6% without regard for inflation which would suggest that the government is desperate to raise revenues by any means, never mind the consequences. Our press being freeloading liars we never get the true picture but the reality suggests that the rupee is like confetti and the government is desperately trying to avoid bankruptcy. Yet the rupee which was 55 to the dollar two years ago has hardened to 46 today. The Japanese yen is trading just below 90 to the dollar even though Japan is still in deflation. This despite the fact that China is buying $ 2 billion dollars worth of american treasuries everyday and has accumulated over $ 2 trillion to date. Japan and Korea must also be buying up dollars to keep their currencies from appreciating and hurting exports. What does this say about the American economy? Can China go on buying US treasuries infinitely? What happens if it floats the renminbi and everyone piles into it or it accumulates so much that it has more dollars than the American government? Seems that those in power have no clue and are just waiting for ' something to happen.' Americans must stop spending and start saving but this will hurt US companies as well and unemployment at 10% will get worse. Scary. Wish someone could explain.

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