Sunday, July 26, 2009

Yesterday it was the turn of the Kurds to hold elections in the autonomous zone in the northern third of Iraq and as usual there are allegations of vote rigging. However election cheating is the least of the problems facing the Kurds, the Iraqi government and the Americans. Since the Americans established a no fly zone over the north of Iraq the Kurds have prospered. How much of it is due to Kurdish enterprise in a land locked region and how much is because of money spent on their development is impossible to judge because everything in the english press is likely to be propaganda put out by the Americans and the British. Anyway prosper they have and Talabani, the President of Iraq, is a Kurd. The Kurds are aspiring to an independent state with oil income from Kirkuk to make them rich. However, as everything in the middle east, it is probably not that simple. Sunnis and Turkmen people living in the Kirkuk area want a share of the oil wealth and this may result in civil war once the American forces leave. Turkey in the north is dead against an independent Kurdistan and will not hesitate to send in its troops. If civil strife breaks out it will have a ready made excuse. The only restraint on Turkey would be serious negotiations with a view to full EU membership but that is not going to happen. Two founding members, Germany and France, seem to be against it and if Turkey feels rejected it not pay heed to any calls for restraint. Obama can pull troops out of Iraq but he may not be able to get Iraq off his plate.

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