The worst of all scenarios is here. The monsoon has failed over large parts of India, mainly the grain producing areas. This means that electricity production will fall hitting industrial production in turn. Rise in food prices will hit the poorest sections of society causing famine. Already over 40% of our children are malnourished and any further reduction in food will surely result in deaths. It is not a question of simply buying food from other countries. After dishing out bribes to win the elections the government is strapped for cash. It has to borrow over Rs 4 trillion from the markets and already the bank chiefs are warning of hardening of interest rates. Desperate ministers keep reassuring us that the monsoon is only late and it will be alright in the end. The real joker is the housing market. There has been no correction in property prices as have occured in other countries. The reason is that Indians buy properties by paying more than half the price in cash or black money to avoid exorbitant taxes. The rest may be mortgage. This sets a lower limit on prices as the owner cannnot afford foreclosure under any circumstances as he will lose all the money paid in cash. The housing bubble is, therefore, very much intact. The politicians were hoping that a good monsoon stimulating rural demand combined with economic recovery in the rest of the world will cover up their sins. Fortune, it seems, is not as forgiving. As always we have to rely onn crossed fingers. Ram bharose.