Sunday, April 05, 2009

The G20 circus is over and much to my surprise it has given tangible results. Perhaps it was because of the popularity of Obama that awed the other leaders into a deal or maybe the man can actually walk on water as his supporters will have us believe. There was Gordon Brown, one of the prime architects of the crisis, listing the various steps to stimulate world growth and create jobs. Using both palms like book ends he gave a press conference as if he is some latter day saviour. $ 250 billion for the IMF's Special Drawing Rights, another $ 250 billion for trade finance and various other bits and bobs amounting to $ 1.1 trillion in total. Perhaps I am a cynic or maybe I have lived too long but I cannot get rid of this gnawing doubt. When the stimulus package begins to work and the global economy begins to improve it will instantly put upwards pressure on commodity prices. Russsia and OPEC countries are suffering so badly that they will refuse to increase output to keep the growth momentum going. What about the increasingly volatile climatic conditions? Severe drought and floods in Australia. Drought in parts of USA. Severe drought in Argentina killing cattle so ranchers changing to soya farming. These are already happening so everything could fall apart if countries used IMF help just to buy food. With so much money being thrown around will they be able to control currency exchange rates? Remember how Gearge Soros made a billion dollars in one week when the pound fell against the German mark. I do not think anyone has a clue. Great fun.

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