Per capita depends on the deflator.

According to the World Bank, "To be a high-income country, Indian citizens must have a per capita income of $13,205 (as per standard set for 2022-23)." TN. To reach this milestone by 100 years of Independence in 2047, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) calculated that, "India's real GDP to grow at 7.6 percent per annum over the next 25 years, raising its per capita GDP of US$2,500 to US$22,000." However, "the best that India has achieved, in terms of compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for nominal per capita GDP, over a period of 25 years in the past is 8.1 percent during 1993-94 to 2017-18." Nominal GDP is the "total value of all its consumer and government spending, investments, and exports, minus the value of its exports." Real GDP is derived by adjusting for currency value by eliminating the effect of inflation. Investopedia. So, if the real GDP has to grow at 7.6% then, adding the GDP deflator at 8.3% in 2022 (World Bank), growth of the nominal GDP has to reach 15.9%. However, the best that India has managed consistently over a 25-year period is just 8.1%. To achieve a high growth, the industrial sector has to grow at a CAGR of 13.4%, agriculture at 4.9%, services at 13%, and the nation must "follow a multi-pronged approach to absorb the large pool of labor force productively". Unfortunately, "Taiwan's Foxconn has withdrawn from a $19.5 billion semiconductor joint venture with Indian metal-to-oil conglomerate Vedanta,...in a setback to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's chipmaking plans for India." Reuters. A few days back, Tata announced, "Tata Sons will build a 40GW battery cell gigafactory in the United Kingdom (UK). The investment, of over 4 billion pounds, will deliver electric mobility and renewable energy storage solutions for customers in UK and Europe. JLR and Tata Motors will be anchor customers, with supplies commencing from 2026." The UK has raised its rate of corporation tax. "The main rate of corporation tax is 25% for the financial year beginning 1 April 2023 (previously 19% in the financial year beginning 1 April 2022)." PwC. "Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, who has said that Britain will not go toe-to-toe on subsidies, declined to give details on any UK financial support for Tata, but acknowledged Britain's need to attract big projects." Reuters. "Britain has previously expressed concerns over the United States' promise of hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for green industries." India has its own Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for 13 sectors worth $28 billion. wikipedia. Clearly not attractive enough. Meanwhile, "Families view civil services as a pathway out of poverty and towards prestige." The Print. "And so loans are taken and money is squirreled away to feed the great Indian coaching factories, which grind parallel to the country's steel frame that is its bureaucracy." Last year, only 933 made it out of 1.135 million candidates. Per capita means 'the amount for each person'. dictionary. In India, per capita is for very few people. That is a big deflator.

Rupee for dollar.

"India will use the G20 platform to push international settlement in rupees, especially with countries that are facing currency issues, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said." Mint. "India is taking steps to promote the use of its currency for international trade as part of a push to boost its exports in countries that are grappling with a shortage of dollars or hit with Western sanctions." VOA. "India has signed an agreement with the United Arab Emirates that will allow it to settle trade in rupees instead of dollars, boosting India's efforts to cut transaction costs by eliminating dollar conversions." Reuters. "India and Malaysia can now use the Indian rupee to settle trade in addition to other currencies, the Ministry of External Affairs said." BT. "Several banks including HDFC Bank and UCO Bank, have opened as many as 30 special vostro accounts ...to facilitate overseas trade in the rupee, a top government official said." ET. So, is it bye-bye US dollar? Not quite. "Russia has accumulated billions of rupees in Indian banks which it can't use, foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said...pointing to a ballooning surplus with the South Asian nation." ET. Now, "Indian refiners have settled some payments for Russian oil imports in Chinese yuan, but the US dollar remains the dominant currency for such payments, a senior government official said." Reuters. Russia prefers the Chinese yuan to the Indian rupee because it imported $67.7 billion worth of goods from China in 2021, oec.world, even though the yuan has fallen more than 4% against the dollar this year. Reuters. "Given frosty ties between Beijing and New Delhi, it's a national embarrassment of sorts," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Close to home, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka should be relatively easy to persuade. Since they run a combined $15 billion annual trade deficit with India, their banks will face the opposite of the problem the Russian institutions encountered." "The basic problem is that India had a surplus with only two of its top 15 trading partners last year: the US and the UK. They will be the last to accept rupee payments." ET. "The country's merchandise exports fell 22 percent to $32.97 billion in June from $42.28 billion a year earlier." ET. And, "India's foreign exchange reserves rose for a third straight week to total $609.02 billion as of July 14," as "They rose by $ 12.74 billion from the week earlier - the biggest gain in four months - having risen by a total of $3.08 billion in the prior two weeks." Reuters. So, why doesn't the government allow free flow of the rupee? "While the 'internationalisation' of the rupee may lower transaction costs of cross-border trade and investment operations by mitigating exchange rate risk, it will lead to complications in terms of formulating of monetary policy," wrote Vaishali Basu Sharma. "In addition to sophisticated financial markets, the most important pre-requisite of 'internationalisation' of currency is price stability." Exactly. It means that the RBI cannot keep the interest rate low to lower government borrowing cost while tolerating high inflation to increase tax collections. Can't expect others to accept the rupee while you are undermining its value. What do they say about having your cake (wikipedia)? 

Stone for the Party.

"As a push to 'sinicize' religion, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has embarked on a 10-year project to rewrite the Bible and other religious texts." Fox. In the Gospel of John, Jesus saves a woman accused of adultery by saying "let the one among you who is guiltless be the first to throw a stone at her." In the Chinese version, Jesus is the first to throw a stone at the woman for challenging the authority of the state. If the Communist Party actually makes Jesus stone the woman it will be supporting the Islamic practice of stoning to death of married people accused of adultery. wikipedia. "In a secret 2018 negotiation, the Vatican agreed to allow the CCP to select the Catholic bishops in China in exchange for vague assurances of 'safety' for some Catholic congregations which were immediately abrogated." Will this create enough jobs for the youth? "An unusually public claim by a Chinese professor that the country's youth unemployment rate might have hit close to 50% in March has revived a debate about official statistics and focused attention on a weak labor market." ET. "Grueling work hours and a dismal job market are forcing young Chinese to make unusual choices." BBC. "In recent weeks, Chinese social media has been flooded with atypical graduation photographs," which show "young people 'lying flat' in graduation gowns, faces covered with mortarboards; others show them holding their graduation certificates above dustbins, ready to bin them." "China is entering an era of much slower economic growth, raising a daunting prospect: it may never get rich." Reuters. "Policymakers hoped to narrow China's development gap with the United States." But its growth rate is expected to slow to 3-4%. "When Japan began to stagnate in the 1990s, it had already exceeded the average GDP per capita of high income countries and was nearing US levels. China, however, is only just above the middle-income point." To become a developed country, China's economy has to grow at around 5%. "But underlying trends - bad demographics, heavy debt and declining productivity growth - suggest the country's overall growth potential is only half that rate," wrote Ruchir Sharma. What about India? "Whether one is a developed country or not is a matter of definition," wrote economist Surjit Singh Bhalla. "Income must be measured in constant per capita PPP (purchasing power parity)." "In 2021-22, India's per capita income was PPP $6,067, about a third of a developed country's level of PPP $18,000. The 'target' per capita growth rate for India to achieve over the next 26 years is 4.1% per annum." And, bingo! India will be a developed country by 2047, the centenary year of Independence. "First came the news of the mysterious death of a senior officer of the PLA Rocket Force and then the disappearance of the same unit's commander." India Today. "Speculation intensified with the disappearance from public view of Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang around the same time, and many sought to draw connections between Qin Gang's disappearance and the turbulence within the PLA Rocket Force." So, there we are. China stuck, India zooming. Rocket.

Twitter's fault.

"A video showing two women being paraded naked by a mob in the northeastern state of Manipur, hit by violent ethnic clashes, has sparked outrage in India." BBC. "Deadly violence has plunged Manipur, a scenic Indian state bordering Myanmar, into turmoil for more than two months." BBC on 12 July 2023. "They were sparked by an affirmative action controversy which saw Kukis protest against a demand seeking tribal status for the Meities. The violence has left more than 130 people dead, and nearly 60,000 have become refugees in their own land." During these months of violence, while people were dying, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was visiting the US. "The White House is pulling out all stops to welcome Mr Modi - it's a state visit, the highest level of diplomatic protocol the US accords to visiting leaders." BBC. He was smiling happily with President Joe Biden. In his speech to the joint houses of the US Congress he said, "Throughout history, one thing has been clear, democracy is the spirit that supports equality and dignity." ET. What dignity for 60,000 refugees? "Today in modern India, women are leading us to a better future." What better future for the women wrestlers who have been sexually assaulted and molested by BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh? Not a word from Mr Modi. Instead the wrestlers were beaten up by Delhi Police and have been banned from protesting. Singh is out on bail within two days. HT. After the US, Mr Modi visited Egypt where he was conferred Egypt's highest honor and visited the Great Pyramid at Giza. India Today. Manipur was still burning. Then Mr Modi visited France. "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was treated to one of France's most spectacular accolades on Friday (14 July) as guest of honor at the Bastille Day military parade." Reuters. On the way back from France, Mr Modi visited the UAE. "Amid those shares, a video showing Burj Khalifa has gone viral. The clip shows the world's tallest building lighting up with the Indian tricolor to mark the visit of PM Modi." HT. Instead, so as not to spoil Mr Modi's mood during his foreign travels, "Internet services across all platforms have been banned in the state (Manipur) since May 3." TOI. The two women were paraded naked on 4 May after circulation of fake news about a rape, which had actually happened in Delhi. "One of the women, aged 21 was gang-raped. When her brother, a 19-year old attempted to intervene, he was killed." India Today. So, what did Mr Modi say in Parliament about the video? He is filled with pain and anger. Against whom? Enraged by the failure to cover up Manipur violence the government will punish Twitter. NDTV. "The incident might be from Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh or Manipur, the culprit must not go scot-free in any corner of the country," he said. Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are ruled by the Congress and Manipur by the BJP. Rape, murder, refugees, he is thinking of general election in May next year (wikipedia). Pain and anger. Not for the raped. Or the dead.       

A matter of value.

"Women now make up nearly 50% of employees in surveyed companies, representing a surge of 17% when compared to 2021, finds a new report." ET. "In its fifth edition, the report provides a compilation of data collected from over 300 companies across India between January 2022 and January 2023." Should be a good thing because these women can afford to pay a hefty dowry. "Dowries have been illegal in India since 1961, but the bride's family is still expected to gift cash, clothes and jewelry to the groom's family. Now a 27 -year-old teacher in the central city of Bhopal has started a petition asking the police to deploy officers at marriage venues and conduct raids to put an end to this 'social evil'." BBC. "According to the National Crime Records Bureau, 35,493 brides were killed in India between 2017 and 2022 - an average of 20 women a day - for bringing in insufficient dowry." This number would be a gross underestimation as many deaths would have been covered up through bribes and family connections. "Most Indian marriages are still arranged," and "Some 90% of the marriages studied until 1999 involved dowry. Dowry payments between 1950 and 1999 amounted to a quarter of a trillion dollars," wrote Soutik Biswas. Perhaps, one silver lining is that "As the number of educated grooms in a marriage market increases, there is a decrease in the 'dowry premium' that more educated grooms receive, the study found." On the other hand, a higher percentage of girls are clearing secondary schools compared to boys, wrote Shailja Vaidya Gupta. Of the 100% of enrollment in primary schools, "83% of girls and 81% of boys clear secondary school, while 67.7% of girls and 61.6% of boys clear higher secondary; this translates to a whopping 39% dropout rate for boys and a surprising 1.07 female-to-male ratio of students in educational attainment." The National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) 2019-2021 found that, "The sex ratio at birth (SRB), however, was still worryingly low at 929 (girls to 1000 boys), indicating continued sex selection at birth, despite an improvement from the previous survey." TOI. While the rest of the world reports sex ratio on the number of boys for every 100 girls, India counts its ratio on the number of girls per 1000 boys. The natural ratio is 103-107 boys for every 100 girls. Our World in Data. Multiplying by 10, the normal ratio is 1050 boys per 1000 girls. As per India's unique system it works out to 950 girls per 1000 boys. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) estimated the sex ratio in India at 910 girls per 1000 boys. drishtiias.com. So, there are fewer girls, a higher percentage of girls are more educated than boys, an increasing number of women is working in high paying jobs, and yet, an average of 20 women are killed for dowry everyday. They should add this in the National Curriculum of Educational Research and Training (NCERT) school textbooks to show our glory. Men selling themselves. Glorious indeed.       

Middle depends on top and bottom.

"The middle class is the fastest-growing major segment of the Indian population in both percentage and absolute terms, rising at 6.3 percent per year between 1995 and 2021. It now represents 31 percent of the population and is expected to be 38 percent by 2031 and 60 percent in 2047." ET. "Growing disposable incomes, along with the rise of the middle class, will make India a consumption powerhouse." The middle class is divided between Aspirers - household income between Rs 125,000-Rs 0.5 million ($1,543-$6,173) per year, Seekers - household income between Rs 0.5-Rs 1.5 million ($6,173-$18,519) and Strivers - household income Rs 1.5 million-Rs 3.0 million ($18,519-$37,370) per year, taking $1 as Rs 81 (xe.com). The World Bank defines lower middle income as gross national income (GNI) per capita between $1,036 and $4,045 and upper middle income as GNI per capita between $4,046 and $12,535. Of course, household income and per capita income are not comparable as the income of a household depends on the number of earning adults. For comparison, "According to research compiled by The Ascent, the median US household income is about $69,717. While the national average US household income was $97,962, the median is a better measure of Americans as a whole, as it's not skewed by extremely large or small incomes." fool.com. According to the Pew Research Center, middle-class income ranged from $30,000 per year for a single person to $210,000 per year for a household of five. Investopedia. Further, the US middle class has been classified according to which state they live in, hellawealth.com, as well as, which major US city they live in, Oakland Berkeley being the most expensive. CNBC. "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects India's GDP, in current US dollars, to reach $5.15 trillion in 2027 (India's 2027-28), past the coveted $5 trillion mark, to cross the GDP of Germany (fourth largest) and Japan (third largest) currently," wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. "The IMF projects India's growth, somewhat optimistically, at 8.72 percent until 2027-28." "Germany's per capita income is $48,438 in 2022, whereas India's is $2,389." "The country's merchandise exports fell 22 percent to $32.97 billion in June from $42.28 billion a year earlier while imports declined 17.48 percent to 53.1 billion in June compared to $64.35 billion a year ago." ET. The trade deficit was $20.13 billion. "India's share in global exports jumped from 0.5 percent in 1990 to 1.7 percent in 2018 to 2.1 percent in 2022, Union Minister of State For Finance Dr Bhagwat Karat said." DH. Not much of a jump, is it? Less than those of tiny countries like Netherlands (3.26%), Singapore (2.87%) and Hong Kong (2.79%). theglobaleconomy.com. Per capita income can increase only by increasing exports and jobs. We can have as many middle class as we like. Just set a low threshold.

Gold bonds worth 7.77 tonnes of the metal.

"Goldman Sachs Research projects India will have the world's second-largest economy by 2075." "India has made more progress in innovation and technology than some may realize." "In India the demographic transition is happening more gradually and over a longer time period," which means "the dependency ratio, which is the non-working-age population that is dependent on the working-age population," "will be among the lowest among the large economies for the next 20 years or so." Of course, by 2075, most of those writing this report and most of those old enough to read it now, will be dead. "Around 415 million people exited poverty within a span of just 15 years between 2005 to 2021 in India, according to the latest Global Multi- dimensional Poverty Index (MPI)." TOI. "Notably, in India, the incidence of poverty fell from 55% (645 million) in 2005/2006 to 16% (230 million) in 2019/21." 415 million (41.5 crores) is more than the population of the US at 340 million. worldometer. Such a huge number of people exiting poverty means increased spending power and higher demand for everything from food to fuel. "Costs of food items ranging from chilly to staples including pulses and rice, consumed by crores of people, are singeing Indians, who in any case have been shelling out more than Rs 100 per liter of petrol in many parts of the country." ET. "India has traditionally been a savings rich economy, but the rising inflation has impacted both consumption and savings, with savings declining to a three decade low, said Utkarsh Sinha." "However, some records indicate that while the preference for saving through financial instruments has dropped, net savings in gold and silver has risen," he added. "Amid last month's stock market breakout, Indians purchased the largest quantity of sovereign gold bonds (SGBs) at 7.77 tonnes worth a whopping Rs 4,604 crore (Rs 46.04 billion) in the first series of this fiscal year, underscoring the preference for an asset that acts as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset at times of global uncertainty." Mint. "The SGB scheme, run by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on behalf of the government, has seen an average subscription of 1.72 tonnes across 64 series in the seven years and seven months since its introduction as an alternative to physical gold in 2015." At the same time, the number of people signing up for the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), a safety net for the rural poor, reached 30.4 million, the highest in three years. The Wire. "Food price spikes in India, typical at the onset of the monsoon, drove up headline inflation in June, corroborating the monetary policy committee's (MPC) view that the fight against inflation is far from over, the RBI said." Reuters. Food supply cannot be increased by raising interest rate, so the MPC will do nothing. "Fight against inflation" means it may not lower it. Hence, people buy gold. Trustworthy. 

Bonhomie is self interest.

"India is a global bright spot with a strong desire to grow even more, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Sunday (yesterday)." ET. "Secretary General of the Muslim World League and President of the Islamic Halal Organisation, Sheikh Muhammad bin Abdul Karim Al-Issa, said India is a great example of Unity in Diversity and his visit to the Akshardham  temple in the national capital...only served to reinforce the belief." ET. "Even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed in Paris for a two-day visit on Thursday (13 July), the European Parliament adopted a motion on the ongoing violence in Manipur," and "Some of motions tabled in the EU Parliament by six parliamentary groups, criticised the Modi government's handling of the two-month-long violence in the state." Outlook. "Other resolutions referred to the broader misuse of Indian laws like the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), UAPA terror law and the Foreign Contributions Regulatory Act (FCRA) by the authorities in the country." "India has reiterated that Manipur is an 'internal matter' after the European Parliament adopted a resolution on the human rights situation in India." NDTV. In other words, Indian citizens are disposable, to be sacrificed if authorities so desire. Spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs Shri Arindam Bagchi responded, "Such interference in India's internal affairs is unacceptable and reflects a colonial mindset." The old chestnut. We are the new colonial power, so push off. "The European Parliament would be well advised to utilize its time more productively on its internal issues." In other words, "Up yours." "One reason that the BJP won a landslide in 2014 was because it promised to eradicate corruption and create an India based on clean governance," wrote Vir Sanghvi. "The BJP, which once railed against dynastic politics, now welcomes dynasts with open arms." "Corruption is now no more than a weapon, a means of inducing politicians to switch parties." "Days before Ajit Pawar joined the BJP alliance, Modi had publicly railed against the NCP's (Nationalist Congress party) corruption. The Enforcement Directorate has also attached assets worth Rs 1,000 crore (Rs 10 billion) allegedly belonging to Ajit Pawar." "Having first called Ajit Pawar corrupt, the BJP has now made him Deputy Chief Minister. It is a fair assumption that the corruption cases will now be forgotten." "The renewed hullaballoo about corruption - which as you know happens only among those in the political opposition; the clever ones who switch to the ruling party are at once washed clean with an unfailing saffron detergent - is, crucially, sought to be peddled with the stamp and seal of the Dear Leader," wrote Badri Raina. The Artha-shastra was written by Kautilya in the 4th century BCE. Britannica. "The ruthlessly realistic state system codified in the Artha-shastra insisted that foreign relations be determined by self-interest rather than by ethical considerations." So, the exaggerated bonhomie by foreign leaders is just superficial diplomacy. Parliamentarians are giving a hint if it doesn't work. Better not to react. Either way.

It's already a success.

"The successful launch of Chandrayaan-3 got the leadership of startups and big companies with Indian roots in Silicon Valley thumping their chests with pride and looking at what lies ahead for India."Zee. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has been making satellites and launching them from Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh, India, as well as on launch vehicles of other nations since 1980. wikipedia. Also, India has launched 424 satellites for 34 countries as of 22 April 2023, of which 231 belonged to the United States which has had a highly successful launch program itself. wikipedia. On 15 February 2017, India deployed 104 satellites, "the largest number of satellites launched on a single flight by any space agency". Chandrayaan-1 was launched in 2008 and was able to gather data for 312 days and was able to detect water molecules in the lunar soil. wikipedia. Chandrayaan-2 was deemed a failure although the spacecraft reached lunar orbit successfully. "India's attempt to land near the south pole of the moon, part of the Chandrayaan-2 mission ended when mission managers lost contact with the lander - seconds before touchdown - just 2 kilometers from the moon's surface." Science. "Some of the top representatives of the Silicon Valley companies echoed the sentiment that the successful launch of the lunar mission signaled emergence of India as a global leader in key areas of the technology sector." It is not possible that persons of Indian origin (PIO) living in the US are ignorant of our long history of space success and that the real test will come when the craft reaches the moon. "India's third moon mission Chandrayaan-3 will attempt the technically challenging soft landing on the lunar surface on August 23, more than a month after Chandrayaan-3 took off from the spaceport in Sriharikota piggybacking on the heavylift LVM3-M4 rocket." ET. India developed cryogenic engines on its own after, "The quest to acquire cryogenic technology faced not just technological challenges but also geopolitical sanctions. In fact, the US had at one point tried to scuttle India's Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) project." TOI. It even pressured Russia to cancel a contract to buy cryogenic engines from Glavkosmos. Now the US is using our launch vehicles for its satellites, presumably because we can do it for much less cost. So, there is no reason for cheap propaganda. For example, "India has emerged as the top choice for investing in emerging market debt, surpassing China, according to a report by Invesco." TN. "For 2022, three years after all the Covid-19 disruptions, the US GDP has grown to $25.46 trillion, China's GDP to $18.1 trillion, and India's GDP to $3.39 trillion,"wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. "Both the US and China have added more than India's 2022-23 GDP ($3.39 trillion) during this period," while India added just $0.55 trillion. Our space program is a true international success. We should wait for mission success before celebrating. Premature chest thumping is idiotic.    

Invest in what?

"China's financial regulators have invited some of the world's biggest investors to a rare symposium next week, three sources said, seeking to encourage foreigners to keep investing in the world's second-largest economy despite its recent weakness and rising geopolitical tensions." Reuters. "The country's post-pandemic recovery is quickly losing steam and Sino-US relations are at a low over national security issues - including Taiwan, US export bans on advanced technologies and China's state-led industrial policies." Showing how weak the economy is, "China's producer prices fell at their fastest pace in over seven years in June, while consumer prices teetered on the edge of deflation, adding to the case for policymakers to use more stimulus to revive sluggish demand." Reuters. But, stimulus for what? "China is awash with 'ghost cities' where apartment blocks stand abandoned or mothballed with some 65 million empty homes." The US Sun. "Rows of post-apocalyptic housing estates tower over visitors, and impressive attractions and shopping malls gather dust without any residents or tourists stepping foot inside." For some strange reason the Chinese government seems to think that it can entice foreign investors with the lure of profits while, at the same time, trying to subjugate their nations by spying on them and hacking into sensitive information. "China-based hackers have breached email accounts at two-dozen organizations, including some United States government agencies, in an apparent spying campaign aimed at acquiring sensitive information, according to statements from Microsoft and the White House." CNN. In the UK, "The House of Commons Intellingence and Security Committee (ISC) said in a wide-ranging report...that the intelligence threat posed by China is compounded by a 'whole-of-state' approach with the use of state and non-state actors used for spying." India Today. In addition to spying, China physically threatens its neighbors. Not content with the cowardly murder of 20 unsuspecting Indian soldiers at Galwan in Ladakh in June 2020, BBC, "China is rushing to complete a bridge across the Pangong Tso, connecting the north and south banks, India is fortifying a black-topped road on its side on the north bank." FE. Also, "China's air force and navy staged a second day of large-scale exercises with fighter jets, bombers and warships to Taiwan's south and southwest on Wednesday (12 July), the island's defence ministry said, as Beijing keeps up its military pressure." Reuters. You cannot threaten the world without retaliation. China's young people are feeling the pressure. "Last year, about 6.8 million couples registered for marriage, the lowest since records began in 1986, down from 13.5 million in 2013, according to government data released last month." NDTV. No marriage means no children. "In 2022, China had one of the world's lowest fertility rates at 1.2 births per woman." BT. No one trusts a hostile nation. Not even its own citizens. So, why invite investors?

Foreigners stupid?

"India has the mechanisms to tweak bilateral investment treaties for quick resolution of disputes" as "India parallelly negotiates bilateral investment treaties (BIT) - along with free trade agreements - with the UK and EU, which seek better investment protection and faster resolution of disputes," wrote Ravi Dutta Mishra. "India has so far stuck to its position favoring 'local remedies' to resolve investment-related legal disputes rather than agree to independent international arbitration after some high-profile losses." "New Delhi now insists that all BITs have to be negotiated using a template provided by a model treaty that favors state rights over investor rights." They must think that leaders of other nations are idiots who will allow their businesses to invest billions of dollars in a country where the government overrides a judgement of the Supreme Court by just passing an ordinance. An ordinance is passed by the government without parliamentary approval. wikipedia. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won 62 seats out of 70 in the Delhi Assembly and so constitutes the government of Delhi. wikipedia. However, in 2021 the central government controlled by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi passed a law taking away all powers of the elected Delhi government. "A month after Parliament passed a controversial bill giving sweeping powers to Delhi's Lieutenant Governor (LG), the Centre...notified the law that makes his prior opinion a must before every executive action by the Arvind Kejriwal-led Delhi government, and every legislative action by the state assembly." HT on 29 Apil 2021. The LG is appointed by the President on advice from the central government. In a dispute between the elected government of Delhi and the LG over who controls the bureaucracy, "The Supreme Court...in a unanimous judgement ruled in favor of the elected government and said it will have power on all services except law and order and land." HT on 11 May 2023. Almost immediately, "In a big, dramatic move, the Centre...promulgated an ordinance to nullify the recent Supreme Court order that had given Delhi government control over officers.., and assigned the superintending jurisdiction over the entire officer cadre in the National Capital Territory to the lieutenant governor." TOI on 20 May 2023. When politicians make themselves above the law the bureaucrats follow. "Uttar Pradesh government officials have 'scant respect' for orders of the highest court of the land, the Supreme Court has observed,  condemning a delay of almost a year by the state in complying with directions regarding remission of some convicts serving life sentences." HT. "The principle of sovereignty denotes that the source of governmental power or the sovereignty lies with the people." legalserviceindia.com. But, here politicians do whatever they please. Override or ignore the Supreme Court at will. And, they think foreign governments will agree to 'local remedies'. Only if they are brain dead.

The Fed will do it.

"USA consumer prices rose modestly in June," as "The CPI gained 0.2 percent last month after edging up 0.1 percent in May, the Labor Department said" ET. The CPI came in at 3%, as "Annual prices have retreated sharply from their 9.1 percent peak in June 2022." However, core inflation was at 4.8%, down from 5.3% in May. Inflation is falling because the US Federal Reserve raised its Funds rate by 500 basis points since March 2022. "Federal Reserve officials appear poised to resume interest-rate hikes this month after data showed inflation cooled sharply in June but remains above the central bank's target." yahoo. "But Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the growth in US consumer prices is still too quick even as it slowed in June, reiterating the central bank's commitment to restoring inflation to its 2% goal." "US jobs growth slowed last month," as "Employers added 209,000 jobs in June," which was "fewer than expected, though the unemployment rate still fell to 3.6%, down from 3.7% in May." BBC. Even so, "The Federal Reserve will likely raise its benchmark interest rate later this month to a 5.25%-5.5% range, traders bet on Friday (7 July), even as they priced a slightly lower chance of any further increase after a government report showed hiring slowed more than expected in June. Traders now see a 20% chance of a rate hike in September and a 40% chance of one by November." Reuters. "Employers posted 9.8 million job vacancies, down from 10.3 million in April, the Labor Department said. But layoffs fell slightly, and more Americans quit their jobs - a sign they were confident they could find better pay or working conditions elsewhere." PBS. The probability of a recession in the US jumped from 5.93% on 30 June 2023 to 17.63% on 31 July 2023 and to 67.31% on 30 June 2024. ycharts,com. "Bank of America responded by shelving the recession call it made at the start of the year, while Goldman Sachs economists say there's now just a 25% chance of a severe slump," but JP Morgan still believes that "there's just a 23% chance the US avoids a recession." BI. The US may be doing well, but developing economies are doing even better, wrote Ruchir Sharma. "Among the 25 largest emerging economies, three-quarters of those reporting data have beaten growth forecasts this year, some including India and Brazil, by a wide margin." "Forecasters now expect emerging economies to grow at an average pace above 4% over the coming year, or four times faster than the developed ones." However, "The rupee...closed at its weakest level versus the US dollar in almost a month as the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting indicated that the monetary policy would continue to be tightened in the world's largest economy, thus narrowing the rate differential with India." ET. Americans trust the Fed. Do Indians trust our Reserve Bank? People buy gold as a hedge. Safest investment.DNA.

Patrons and 100%.

"In February this year, the Union ministry of education informed the Lok Sabha that 750,365 new students flew abroad for higher studies in 2022, the highest number in six years, and 161,642 more than in 2019. Confirmation comes from another quarter, as online platform Yocket found a total of 1.32 million studying abroad in 2022, up from 1.14 million in 2021. Gurugram-based Redseer Strategy Consultants expect the number to go up to 1.8 million by 2024." May be because good students are being beaten by mediocre ones. Because, "It's a common experience that students are scoring higher marks in state and national school leaving ('Board') exams today than they have in the past," wrote Sridhar Rajagopalan. Why have students become so clever? "In many states, students from both state and central Boards compete for college seats." Boards compete to give higher marks to their examinees to help them score higher than students of other Boards. "Today, it is common for the highest score in each subject to be 100% or very close, often with the overall highest score also nearly 100%." Boards do this by "diluting paper difficulty and types of questions to ensure enough students can score high marks. They also make mark-sheet corrections more lenient and provide grace marks." When marks become so important parents resort to private tuition for their children. "The current market revenue of the coaching industry in India is Rs 58,088 crore (Rs 580.88 billion), according to Infinium Global Research, a consultancy firm based in Pune. The coaching industry's growth is projected to reach Rs 1,33,995 crore (Rs 1.34 trillion) by 2028."The Print. Byju's is an online coaching, or edtech, company. "Founded in 2011, Byju's launched its learning app in 2015." BBC. However, "Valued at $22bn last year, Byju's has seen its valuation slashed to $5.1bn this year by Prosus NV, the company's biggest investor and shareholder." As "in recent months, the company has been dogged by complaints as parents accused it of not fulfilling its promises - coercing them into buying courses they couldn't afford and then not providing the promised services. Some also said that the firm used predatory practices to exploit customers." Desperate children and parents are easy prey for sharks. "Business is booming in India's $117 billion education industry and new colleges are popping up at breakneck speed." Bloomberg. "Yet thousands of young Indians are finding themselves graduating with limited or no skills," as "Desperate to get ahead, some of these young Indians are paying for two or three degrees in the hopes of finally landing a job." Teachers are being recruited, not for their knowledge, but for political affiliation in recognised universities, wrote Apoorvanand. "If you do not have patrons in any faction of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), then you should not even think of applying." Political teachers and 100% students. The lucky ones are abroad.

High risk, high yields.

"India has now overtaken China as the most attractive emerging market for investing in emerging market debt, said a report by Invesco." TOI. "As per the report, a development sovereign based in the Middle East said, 'We don't have enough exposure to India or China. However, India is a better story now in terms of business and political stability." Nice, but no money where the mouth is (idioms). "In the battle between Asia's two highest-yielding markets, Indian assets look more promising than those of Indonesia." ET. "The Indian currency offers higher compensation for risk than the rupiah, with the carry to risk ratio 2.8 compared with just 0.5 for Indonesia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg." Since, yield is inverse of the price, Indian bonds are priced lower and the risk premium is higher. That may be because markets are pricing a much greater probability of higher inflation in India. "The highest bond yields among major Asian nations and a less volatile currency thanks to the central bank's intervention are burnishing the appeal of rupee assets." The RBI tries to keep the rupee from weakening to prevent prices, and inflation, from rising. "India's foreign exchange reserves saw an uptick of $1.9 billion, taking the overall level to $595.1 billion as on June 30, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed." ET. "It can be noted that in October 2021, the country's forex kitty had reached an all-time high of USD 645 billion. The reserves have been declining as the central bank deploys the kitty to defend the rupee amid pressures caused majorly by global developments." In March 2023, a report by a parliamentary panel on commerce stated that "Despite appropriate resources, the country has not been able to utilise China Plus One via which several international companies moved manufacturing and production away from Xi Jinping's China." BW. "Amidst the heightened global uncertainty, the Indian economy has proved to be more resilient than many large economies of the world, a report from CII (Confederation of Indian Industry) has shown." ET. "Notably, 65 percent of respondents believe that the recent increases in private investment will continue during the current fiscal year." "Taiwan's Foxconn has withdrawn from a $19.5 billion semiconductor joint venture with Indian metals-to-oil conglomerate Vedanta, it said..., in a setback to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's chip making plans for India." Reuters. "It isn't just the Vedanta-Foxconn project that has hit a rough patch. A $3 billion proposal that had Israeli foundry Tower Semiconductor Ltd as a tech partner has also stalled, while a third plan is stuck because Singapore-based IGSS Ventures Pte wants to resubmit its application for incentives," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn's decision to pull out of Vedanta joint venture has no impact on India's semiconductor fabrication plant goal, minister of state for electronics and IT Rajeev Chandrashekhar said." ET. He has to save face, after all. General election is nigh.

Flood of support for the publicist.

"A single-judge bench of the Karnataka high court said it does not behove schools to teach children to criticise government policies or insult constitutional functionaries for taking particular policy decisions." The Wire. "The Karnataka High Court has said abusive words used against the Prime Minister was derogatory and irresponsible but it does not constitute sedition, while quashing a case of sedition against a school management." Strange that, "The Gujarat high court has dismissed opposition leader Rahul Gandhi's appeal seeking a stay on his conviction in a criminal defamation case. Mr Gandhi was sentenced to two years in jail for his comments about Prime Minister Narendra Modi's surname at an election rally. He was disqualified as an MP following his sentencing." BBC. What about frogs, snakes and monkeys? Are they derogatory and irresponsible, or criminal defamation? "You (the opposition) will sit on the same tree...there are frogs, snakes and monkeys too because there is flood water below. There is such a flood of support and popularity of Modi ji that all of them are trying to climb a tree," said Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan. What about 'creepy, crawly'? Is that derogatory or defamation? In response to India's objection to a float "marking the 39th anniversary of Operation Blue Star, depicted a tableau of assassinated former prime minister Indira Gandhi with blood on her clothes," Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau said, "We have an extremely diverse country and freedom of expression is something that we value, but we will always make sure that we are pushing back against violence and extremism in all its form." NDTV. India condemned Trudeau's support of "freedom of expression" as 'vote bank politics'. BT. We should know. After all, 'vote bank politics' was born right here in India. Sikhs in London distributed sweets the day Mrs Gandhi was shot. quora. At that time, the UK government's position was that celebrating someone's killing was in very bad taste but was not a crime. India's first Home Minister Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel accused the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) of distributing sweets when Mahatma Gandhi was shot dead by Nathuram Godse who was a member of the RSS. Logically. In November 2022, Chief of RSS Mohan Bhagwat said, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a swayamsewak and pracharak, and even today he is working as a pracharak." India.com. 'Pracharak' means a 'publicist', 'the promoter of a cause or idea tries to make it popular'. Collins. Modi never forgets to remind us about the "dark days of Emergency" under Mrs Indira Gandhi and said, "I pay homage to all those courageous people who resisted the Emergency and worked to strengthen our democracy." NDTV. Pity, courageous people like Telugu journalist Thulasi Chandu are threatened with murder these days. The Wire. Democracy without freedom of expression. Only prachar.

Look outside.

"According to a recent report by the World Bank and World Trade Organization (WTO), India has witnessed a significant increase in its share of global commercial services exports. The country's share has doubled from 2% in 2005 to 4.4% in 2022." Adda247. Unfortunately, inside India, startups have hit a roadblock. "There was no new unicorn in India in the first half of 2023 as startup funding plunged more than 70 percent in the January-June period from a year ago, signaling that the funding winter is here to stay as several top unicorns continue to face an economic downturn." Zee. "In the first quarter of this year, Indian startups raised a total of $2.8, massive 75 percent lower compared to the same period in the previous year ($11.9), as rising inflation and interest rates continue to impact investments significantly." "In business, a unicorn is a privately held startup company valued at over US$1 billion." wikipedia. The established companies are also feeling the pinch. "India's outsourcing giants are slashing hiring and getting projects done with existing workers, a rare pullback that could weigh on the economy and affect engineering students who have seen information technology as the sector of choice for decades." Reuters. "The IT sector accounts for about 8% of India's GDP versus less than 1% about 30 years back, according to Rishad Premji, the chairman of Wipro, one of the country's IT giants." "The dismal outlook is worrying many students as the IT sector typically absorbs 20-25% of the 1.5 million graduates every year in India." "IT services companies have been operating with a near perfect product-market fit, of the extent to which a product or service is addressing a real market need," wrote TN Hari. "Yet, in 2022, the collective valuation of the unicorns, or private  companies with a valuation of over one billion dollars, was roughly the same as the top 10 IT services companies." "Take the case of edtech company Byju's, one of India's most valuable startups. In 2020-21, the company's loss, at Rs 4,588 crore (Rs 45.88 billion) was twice its revenue. Yet, its valuation in 2022 was an incredible $22 billion." "Edtech giant Byju's creditors...have pulled out of talks to restructure a loan". BT. "Byju's offered to increase the coupon on loan due 2026 by around 300 basis points and prepay part of the debt to renegotiate the agreement after it missed a deadline to file audited financial results." US investment firm BlackRock slashed its valuation to $8.4 billion. "Audit firm Deloitte and three board members have exited Indian startup Byju's". ET. The listing price of the Paytm IPO was Rs 2,080-Rs 2,150. Groww. It fell to Rs 438.35 per share on 24 November 2022, but has climbed up to Rs 860 per share. "There is probably no VC funded unicorn in the current lot that is likely to stand the test of private valuation in a public market." And so, "If you hear the buzz, the Indian economy is the bright spot in a gloomy world. But if you look at its ratings, it's just managing to carry on." ET. That is because we Indians have very little money. Only what outsiders give.     

MSP or Canada.

"Earlier this month, the government announced the minimum support prices (MSP) for 23 crops for the forthcoming kharif season . The MSP is an advisory price and is expected to serve as the floor." Mint. The list of MSP for Kharif crops has been published. Presumably the prices for Rabi crops will be published later. farmer.gov.in. 'Kharif' is Arabic for 'autumn' and is planted in summer just before the monsoon starts, while 'Rabi' is Arabic for 'spring' and is planted around November. Vedantu. "This year, the government hiked MSP rates by 5-10% over the last year." "In 2018-19, the average farm household earned Rs 10,218 per month ( at current rates)", "That was just short of the national per capita income for that year, which was Rs 10,495 per month." In 2020, the government passed three farm bills which sought to encourage farmers to "engage with agri-business firms, processors, wholesalers, exporters or large retailers for farm services and sale of future farming produce at a mutually agreed remunerative price framework in a fair and transparent manner". pib.gov.in. Farmers saw the bills as a step towards abolishing MSP and feared that they would be at the mercy of rapacious big business. Farmers from Punjab and Haryana went on strike at the borders of Delhi. The government tried to portray the protest as inspired by Khalistanis but that failed. Eventually the three acts were repealed in November 2021. wikipedia. In December 2021, "The Samukta Kisan Morcha (SKM) sent a list of 702 farmers who are said to have 'died' during protest against three contentious farm laws, to the government." DH. There were about 145 million farmer families in India in 2020, out of which 4.333 million sold wheat at MSP in the Rabi season and 12.4 million sold rice paddy at MSP in the Kharif season. DNA. Of these, 42% of farmers during Rabi season and 25% during the Kharif season were from Punjab and Haryana. Farmers had every reason to protest against the farm bills. "In Bihar, which abolished state regulated mandis (wholesale markets) back in 2006," "Farmers cannot bargain. The produce is neither graded nor auctioned as is the practice in well-functioning markets in other states," wrote Sayantan Bera. Farmers from Bihar travel to Punjab to work as farm laborers. However, "The simple fact is that a vast majority of rural households  are not able to make a living from farming, and are unlikely to be able to do so in the future." But, people in Punjab are not happy either and "emigration has been the aspiration of people for more than a century." The Wire. "In Talhan, Jalandhar, the famous Gudwara Shaheedan Baba Nihal Singh ji" "is perceived by thousands of people as one that will grant the wish to emigrate, so worshippers routinely bring toy aeroplanes or replicas of aeroplane with them and ask for them to be blessed." If Punjab is so badly off, how bad is Bihar? No wonder Punjabi farmers fought for MSP. 

China+1, or 1/2.

"With steadily rising tensions between the United States and China, the race to become +1 in the China+1 contest is now in full swing," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Cambodia, India and Bangladesh are in the running. India's advantages are: 1. It has a huge working age population with 950.2 million people in the 15-64 age group. 2. Per capita income is very low so wages are also low. 3. It is a single market and goods and services can move freely within its borders. 4. It is a large internal market with a GDP of $3.4 trillion. India's disadvantage is that it is not a member of either the Regional and Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) or the Comprehensive Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and our tariffs are too high. China is a member of RCEP and has applied to join CPTPP. "An examination of customs-duty rates beginning in 2011-12 confirms the general impression that they saw an uptick beginning in 2014-15," wrote Panagariya. "But the real break in the policy came in 2018-19: That year, a massive 42.3% of all tariff lines went up, the average of all customs duties increased from 13.7% to 17.7%, and the proportion of tariff lines bearing 15% or higher duty rates shot up from 28.7% to 51.0%." "India sends to the OECD some of the brightest tax experts in the world," wrote Pascal Saint-Amiens. "But India suffers from a negative reputation for the practices of its tax administration." "India does not need tax incentives to attract investments. It is the largest fast-growing market in the world. What it needs is tax certainty." "Leading chartered accountant and Manipal Group Chairperson Mohandas Pai has reacted to a report that said 6,500 high-net-worth individuals (HNIs) will leave India in 2023 calling the trend 'very worrisome' and attributing it to 'tax terrorism'." Mint. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has granted foreign banks in 18 countries to open Vostro accounts to settle international trade in rupees. In July, last year, the Centre had said that it will be setting up of a mechanism to settle international trade in rupees." BT. But, "Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov recently said that Russia has 'accumulated billions of rupees in Indian banks' and to use this money 'the rupees need to be transferred to another currency'," wrote Vivek Kaul. Yield on 10-year government bonds in India is at 7.157, in.investing.com, while the RBI lending rate is at 6.5%, ET. The Federal Funds rate in the US is at 5%-5.25%, Forbes, while the 10-year bond yield in the US is at 4.036, in.investing.com. Clearly, the US Fed has credibility and the RBI does not. And so, "Indian refiners have begun paying for some oil imports from Russia in Chinese yuan." BT. We are nowhere near China+1. Reached half yet?

Which side are we on?

"US President Joe Biden...equated his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping with 'dictators' as he addressed the Democratic Party donors reception in the presence of journalists." ET. "The reason why Xi Jinping got very upset in terms of when I shot that balloon down with two box cars full of spy equipment is he didn't know it was there. I'm serious. That was the great embarrassment for dictators, when they didn't know what happened," Biden said. Said the man who is given cheat sheets and told what to do. President Biden found himself in another embarrassing situation as he was caught using cheat sheets during a press conference with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol." HT. "In the past, he has been ridiculed for using prepared answers during press briefings and even holding detailed instructions on how to enter a room and greet participants." "US consumer spending - the economy's main engine - has lost steam for most of this year, portending weaker growth ahead while also helping to cool inflation." ET. "Euro-area core inflation accelerated in June to an annual gain of 5.4% from 5.3% in the prior month as the cost of services picked up markedly." "China's consumer driven economy is showing more signs of losing momentum as spending slows on everything from holiday travel to cars and homes, adding to expectations for more stimulus to support the economy." "Beijing's typical playbook of using large-scale stimulus to boost demand has led to massive oversupply in property and industry, and surging debt levels among local governments." ET. "Netting out the base effect, growth for 2023 will look closer to 3% - less than half the pre-pandemic average." "Expectations of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve to tame stubbornly high inflation helped push a closely watched part of the US Treasury yield curve to its deepest inversion since 1981.., once again putting a spotlight on what many investors consider a time-honored recession signal." BT. "A key dilemma the People's Bank of China faces is that its main lever of juicing growth - rate cuts - can also put downward pressure on the yuan, which has fallen by 5% against the dollar this year." BI. In fact, rate cuts "have widened the gap with US rates as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten with more hikes on the way, making dollar assets more attractive to investors." As if all this confusion is not enough, "China's commerce ministry stated that, starting from August 1, it would exercise control over the exports of eight gallium products and six germanium products, citing the need to safeguard national security and interests." ET. "The metals are used in high-speed computer chips and in the defence and renewable energy sectors. Germanium is key to fibre optic cables and also used in high-speed computer chips and plastics as well as infrared radiation." Reuters. China seems to know only aggressive expansionist foreign policy. So, in May "Total Mexican exports rose 5.8% from a year ago, reaching $52.9 billion" and "The country posted a trade deficit of $74 million, significantly less than April's $1.5 billion." ET. Also, India's stock market index the Sensex has risen to a record 65,666 this morning. BSE. Who will win in this high-stakes game between the US and China? We don't know. But, a weaker China is great for us. No choice but to support the US. 

No wage inflation in India.

"Making monetary policy is often like flying blind due to the lagged information on growth and inflation variables while the use of statistics and consumer surveys reduce the uncertainty and enhance the credibility in managing the policy trade-offs between the desirable and the feasible, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Michael Debabrata Patra said." ET. Not really. Just ask the Ministry of Finance which owns the RBI. wikipedia. After all, the present Governor Shaktikanta Das was a Secretary in the Revenue Department of the Ministry of Finance. wikipedia. Now, "Policy positions no longer seem to be based on economics," wrote Puja Mehra. "Instead, economists' public utterances tend to signal a leaning towards personalities or politics, perhaps to get picked for policymaking positions, or seem to vent frustration at getting fired from such jobs." "The government appears to attract cheerleaders who seldom bother to even pretend to be even-keeled. If their words held weight in policymaking, they'd be writing more on government files than in newspapers or on social media." Last week, "four of the world's top central bankers: those of the US, Eurozone, UK and Japan" met "at the annual ECB forum on central banking," wrote Narayan Ramachandran. "If one were to read between the lines, Powell, Lagarde and Bailey seemed to be saying that despite a decline in headline inflation (possibly caused by a greater than expected decline in energy prices), they were more than a bit surprised about how resilient the labor market was in their respective regions. Given this reality, they saw no way to reduce inflation to its target without rates being 'higher for longer'." India has an excess of labor. "In 2022, 1.1 million young Indians applied for the civil services examinations; 573,735 aspirants appeared for it; and a mere 933 candidates made it through," wrote Yamini Aiyar and Rahul k Sharma. "According to the department of personnel and training, 220 million hopeful candidates applied for central government jobs between 2014 and 2021." Out of 235 countries in the world, 220 million people is more than the population of 230 countries. worldometer. In "The grubby lanes of Musallahpur, in Patna," "the cacophony is directed toward a single goal: helping young people land a government job." DH. "When nothing pans out, even the most educated young people must settle for whatever work they can find, be it wage labor in the city or helping around the farm back home." With such enormous competition for jobs there can be no one will dare to demand higher wages in India. In June the RBI held its interest rate at 6.5% for the second time while predicting an inflation rate of 5.1% for the financial year 2023-24. TIE. Not flying blind, as Patra fears. Doing as expected.

Impromptu house arrest and Vande Bharat.

"India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has received a significant boost in the country's wealthiest state, as prominent opposition leader Ajit Pawar and several lawmakers from his party joined the provincial government." ET. Pawar has been appointed deputy chief minister in Maharashtra. "In recent year, BJP faced defeats in West Bengal by a big margin to Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress that is seen as a fierce rival to BJP and lost in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka in May that gave a big momentum to opposition Congress Party. BJP is in power in 10 out of 28 states." Why resort to sweeteners when, "Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan...equated the meeting of opposition parties in Patna with 'animals' perching on a tree to save themselves from 'flood' of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity." ET. "You (the opposition) will sit on the same tree...there are frogs, snakes and monkeys too because there is flood water below," said Chauhan. How civilised! If the PM's popularity is a flood, pray why, "With Prime Minister Narendra Modi scheduled to visit Delhi University (DU) as chief guest at the valedictory ceremony of its centenary celebrations..., the constituent colleges of the varsity have sent out circulars to ensure that the event is well attended. Among the instructions - attendance is compulsory, and don't wear black clothes." HT. Students have been promised "five attendances" for their presence. Delhi University is assisting students to miss classes. Can they grovel any lower? In an impromptu house arrest, "Two constables from the Model Town Police Station entered the house of All India Students Association (AISA) Delhi President Abhigyan and AISA DU Secretary Anjali without warrants or any other relevant documents, Anjali alleged." The Wire. "The Wire contacted the Model Town Police Station to enquire about the constable's presence at the student's house however the SHO (Station House Officer) disconnected the call as soon as the 'Delhi University' was mentioned." These activists are lucky. Delhi Police has a record of picking up a young woman activist from her home in another state and throwing her into prison without proving any wrong. Ask Disha Ravi. DH. On returning from Egypt, Mr Modi "was received at the airport by Union Minister of State for External Affairs Meenakshi Lekhi and BJP chief Nadda." HT. "He asked Naddaji how it is going here, and Naddaji told him that party leaders were reaching out to people with the report card of the nine years of his government, and the country is happy," BJP MP Manoj Tiwari told reporters. "Happy" people in Manipur are killing each other. "For more than two months now, nobody's writ has run in the border state except that of the rival mobs, or armed bands, currently at war with each other," wrote Shekhar Gupta. Meanwhile, PM Modi flagged off 5 new Vande Bharat trains at Rani Kamalapati railway station in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, ET, whose chief minister thinks opposition politicians are "animals". From the sinister to the ridiculous. Better be happy. Or else!         

One wonders.

"The Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime is an 'exemplar' that reduced tax burden on people, brought ease of compliance and created an efficient federal institution with revenue buoyancy for states, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said...citing media reports calling the Rs 1.6 lakh crore (Rs 1.6 trillion) monthly collection as the new normal." HT. "India's gross GST revenue collection in June stood at Rs 1,61,497 crore ( Rs 1.615 trillion), registering a 12 percent year-on-year rise, the Ministry of Finance said. India in April 2023 saw a record high GST collection of Rs 1.87 trillion." ET. "GST has acted as an engine for driving domestic consumption and helped households save on monthly bills since its implementation six years ago, the government said." ET. So, the government is collecting ever rising taxes on the goods and services that we consume and we are saving on monthly bills. This is genius mathematics that even the great Srinivasa Ramanujan (Britannica) would have been proud of. Ramanujan also did not have any college certificate but was awarded the Bachelor of Arts by Research by Cambridge University. MacTutor. This math has been explained by Mr Sanjay Malhotra. Before GST there were hidden taxes and, "As surveys showed, elimination of these cascading taxes and reduction of logistics costs translated to lower prices of goods and services. One may wonder how revenues increased when tax incidence on consumers has reduced." Indeed! One wonders very much. Turns out, it is very simple. "The answer lies in tax collection as the tax base increased from 64 lakh (6.4 million) in September 2017 to more than 14 million in June 2023 and taxpayer compliance improved." But surely, this increased compliance was passed on to us, the consumers, because GST is a consumption-based tax (cleartax)? That may be why, "It is now official that government employees will be receiving a 46 percent dearness allowance (DA Hike) in July 2023." DNA. "Dearness Allowance is paid by the government to its employees as well as a pensioner to offset the impact of inflation." cleartax. A government secretary is paid a salary in excess of Rs 200,000 per month, which is over Rs 2.4 million per year. wikipedia. At 46%, a government secretary will be paid Rs 1.104 million per year as DA to protect them against inflation. According to the second advance estimate (SAE) the per capita GDP for 2022-23 was Rs 1,15,490 and the per capita GNI was a meager Rs 1,13,144. PIB. These people are receiving nearly 10 times the per capita GNI to compensate for inflation. And, we are told we are paying less. Obscene, isn't it.

Fraudsters and wilful defaulters.

"On Friday (30 June), both Sensex and Nifty50 clocked more than 1% gains and scaled lifetime highs at 64768.58 points and 19201.70 points, respectively. Nifty50 settled at a record closing high of 19189.05 points and Sensex at 64718.56 points." ET. "Inflows from foreign portfolio investors into equities crossed $10 billion in the current financial year." But, "While the Indian rupee has been the second best to the rupiah in terms of carry returns so far in 2023, that looks set to change in the second half of the year." ET. "The highest bond yields among major Asian nations and a less volatile currency are burnishing the appeal of rupee assets." "Benchmark 10-year Indian bonds offer a yield of 7.07%, compared to 6.30% on similar-maturity Indonesian notes." Since yields are inverse to price, it is strange that Indian government bonds are priced lower than those of Indonesia, seeing that our economy is doing so well. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Saturday (01 July) that the Indian economy has moved away from the twin-balance sheet problem of banks and corporates to twin-balance sheet advantage because of the concerted efforts of the Modi government. Profits of public-sector banks increased to Rs 1.04 lakh crore (Rs 1.04 trillion) in 2022-23." Outlook. Great news. "Scheduled commercial banks' net non-performing assets (NPA) ratio fell to a 10-year low of 3.9 percent in March 2023, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) noted." ET. Wonderful, but, a detailed letter from Dr Bhagwat Karad, Minister of State for Finance showed that "the sum total of the irrecoverable losses made by banks over the eight years and nine months of Narendra Modi's rule comes to Rs 12,09,606 crore (Rs 12.096 trillion)," wrote Rajya Sabha MP Jawhar Sircar. In June, an RBI circular to banks said, "Regulated entities may undertake compromise settlements or technical write-offs in respect of accounts categorised as wilful defaulters or fraud without prejudice to the criminal proceeding underway against such debtors..." TOI. "This is the first time that RBI has come out with compromise norms for settling with wilful defaulters." "A wilful defaulter is a borrower who has defaulted on meeting payment or repayment obligations to the lender despite having the capacity to do so." Reuters. "Two of India's largest bank employee unions...urged the central bank to review and withdraw its recent decision to allow compromise settlements for wilful defaulters." A fraudster is one who borrows money through "forged instruments, manipulation of books of accounts and conversion of property," or uses the money for "illegal gratification". RBI. "In the last five years, banks have reported 983 frauds above Rs 100 crore (Rs 1 billion) to the tune of Rs 3,76,400 crore (Rs 3.764 trillion)," wrote Thomas Franco. This is depositors' money. Can defaulters and fraudsters invest in the stock markets? That could explain the astronomical rise.